265
FXUS63 KPAH 090458
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected at least through the middle of
  next week, but a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out Friday
  night mainly over southern Illinois.

- Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Thursday
  night, then the mercury will climb to near normal levels
  Friday into Saturday. The Mt Vernon and Fairfield areas in
  southern Illinois may see lows Friday morning in the upper
  30s.

- Temperatures will climb back above normal beginning Sunday and
  should be near 80 throughout the region by next Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft will keep the
Quad State cool and dry into the weekend. The coolest day will
be Thursday and the coldest night will be Thursday night.
Portions of the Evansville Tri State may not reach 70 Thursday.
Thursday night, areas along and north of the I-64 corridor could
drop just below 40 degrees, but the NBM is just warm enough to
not add any frost into the forecast for now. A minor shift lower
in subsequent forecast could result in some patchy frost being
added to the forecast.

A compact storm system with a closed low will move southeast
across the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This will
allow light south southwest winds to return Friday into Saturday
and then a weak cold front will eventually wash out across the
area Saturday night. The associated warm advection precipitation
will dissipate as it moves southeast toward the region Friday
night into Saturday. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out, but it
will most likely remain dry. Temperatures will be around normal
levels Friday and Saturday.

A ridge of high pressure aloft will then build over the Quad
State late in the weekend and winds will become southerly,
leading to a substantial warm up heading into next week. High
and low temperatures will climb as much as 5 degrees above
normal for Sunday through the middle of next week, and the
region will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Slight vsby drops are possible in areas near water where winds
become calm. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, with skies
remaining clear through the TAF period. Winds increase to around
7-9 kts, gusting to around 12-15kts, tomorrow midday-afternoon,
then become light again in the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL