632
FXUS63 KPAH 140552
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous late season heat wave is forecast for the early to
  middle part of this week. Peak daily heat index values around
  105 degrees are expected during the worst of the heat.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for parts of southeast
  Missouri and far west Kentucky.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for
  the entire area.

- Slightly less humid conditions are forecast next weekend,
  along with the return of a small chance of showers on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The main story for the upcoming week remains the dangerous late
season heat wave that will begin to impact parts of the area
today then the entire region from Tuesday through at least
Wednesday (and likely beyond). Ensemble guidance continues to
show a 596-600 dm H5 ridge becoming centered over the Mid-South
today through Friday. Temperatures at 850 mb will be around
19-22C, which is near maximum values for this time of year.

Today, the strongest ridging will be located over southeast MO
and far west KY, where high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 90s. With dew point temperatures in the lower to middle
70s, peak heat index values will reach around 105F. Have
expanded the inherited Heat Advisory for today to include
locations along and south of a line from Mayfield KY to Scott
City MO to Van Buren MO.

Beginning Tuesday, the ridge will expand to become centered over
the entire region, with high temperatures in the middle to upper
90s forecast for most of the area, with dew point temperatures
in the lower 70s. This will yield heat index values around 105
degrees Tuesday and Wednesday across the entire region. Opted to
extend the inherited Heat Advisory for the entire area from
Tuesday through Wednesday evening. Depending on how quickly dew
point temperatures draw down, the Heat Advisory may be extended
through Thursday with later forecast updates.

The late season nature of the this heat wave has raised our
levels of concern for health impacts. This is due to more
activities taking place outdoors (school events, festivals,
sporting events, outdoor workers, etc.) when conditions would
usually be much cooler by the middle of September. Those
planning to participate in outdoor activities this week should
be prepared for the heat or should consider altering plans to
minimize exposure to the heat. Looking at historical records,
this is latest in the season we can find that a Heat Advisory
has been issued for our forecast area in at least 20 years
(which is farthest back we can find records for Heat Advisory
issuance), so there is nothing typical about this level of heat
and humidity in this part of September.

Model guidance continues to trend slower to break down this
ridge, and high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s will
likely linger through next weekend. However with continued dry
conditions, dew point will begin to draw down into the 60s,
which will limit heat index values to the middle to upper 90s.
Additionally, the return of mentionable low-end precipitation
chances has also been delayed until Sunday at the earliest, so
drought impact concerns will also increase during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Fog is possible at CGI and PAH tonight and may reduce
visibilities to MVFR for a few hours. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected for the rest of the TAF period. Afternoon scattered
cumulus is forecast to develop around 6kft, but should clear by
00/01Z. Winds will generally be between 5-8kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for MOZ107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ Tuesday to 7 PM CDT /8
    PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KYZ004-005-007>022.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for KYZ001>003-006.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...AZ