699
FXUS63 KPAH 142316
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temps will combine with resurging
  humidity to produce headline (Advisory) heat thru mid week.

- It will remain warm/humid Thursday-Friday as well, with a
  threat of triple digit heat indices lingering thru week`s end.

- Slightly cooler/less humid conditions appear with small rain
  chances by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The dry air punch was nice this morning, but it`s short-lived.
70F+ dews just to our south overspreading the region now will
soon complete the transaction. Thence, the heat comes in earnest,
with the entire area experiencing triple digit indices thru the
mid week and headlined accordingly. Should Thursday be added as
well? It does not look like there is collaborative stomach for
that push today, but HI`s are similar, if mostly just shy of the
hard single day criteria. The NWS Heat Risk map reflects some
contraction Thursday that begins a trend that carries on
into/thru the weekend, even as we do have signals in the model
guidance that we remain above normal...probably we fall off the
mid week week extremes enough to preclude headlines
(eventually--by the weekend) but we`ll see as it plays out.
Already, today`s guidance numbers are higher/pops are lower vs
the preceding day vs the preceding day, so we`re trending
warmer/drier even with cooling; something to monitor. Probably
the height falls and reemerging pops by early next week pushes
us out of the extremes. Until then, SEE the next 2-3 days of
record or near record breaking temps:

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 15
STATION    FCST HI    RECORD HI/YR
CGI9696/2025
MDH 96   106/1939
EVV  98    99/1939
PAH97   102/1939
POF98   101/1939

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 16
STATION    FCST HI    RECORD HI/YR
CGI 95    99/2019
MDH 96   101/1927
EVV 9797/1897
PAH9797/2019
POF98   101/1927

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 17
STATION   FCST HI  RECORD HI/YR
CGI 96     96/2019
MDH96   102/1927
EVV9996/1927
PAH9698/1939
POF98   101/1927

One could make a duration argument for the Advisory to run thru
Friday, as we maintain triple digit HI production thru then;
the upper ridge continues to run strong in the mid-upper 590s
DM (H5) thru the week`s end. But after that, it is muddied up
enough by low pressure areas barrelling into it over the weekend
from both the north/west and south/east to drop her into the
580s by early next week. Temps should cool off their peaks
(while remaining above normal) while smallish pcpn chances
reemerge in the forecast with this synoptic pattern evolution.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The TAFs are VFR. There should be enough wind overnight to
prevent fog formation. South southwest winds will pick up with
mixing in the morning, and will gust 14-17kts through the
afternoon at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ Tuesday to 7 PM CDT /8
    PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KYZ004-005-007>022.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>003-006.

&&

$$


AVIATION...DRS