494
FXUS63 KPAH 181143
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
643 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
  through late tonight. Damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado or
  two, and localized flooding issues will be the main threats.

- Breezy, dry and, cooler conditions are forecast Sunday.
  Northwest winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph are forecast during the
  afternoon.

- A return of mainly dry and seasonably mild conditions are
  expected most of next week, with a small chance of rain
  forecast late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Ongoing low-end severe thunderstorm forecast for today looks on
track from previous forecasts. Expecting an H5 trough phase over
the region tonight into Sunday with surface low pressure
deepening as it moves as it moves across MO and IL Saturday moving
northeastward. Strong WAA will allow high temperatures to climb
into the middle to upper 80s this afternoon (near or at record
high values) along with dew point temperatures rising into the
lower to middle 60s. This will yield about 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE by the afternoon across southeast MO into southern IL,
with lesser values further to the east.

Expecting a prefrontal trough to kick off isolated to widely
scattered storms in this area by mid-afternoon, with the
activity quickly growing upscale into an MCS by late
afternoon/early evening. The storm complex will push eastward
and weaken as instability wanes during the late evening hours,
eventually exiting the region by Sunday morning.

SPC has maintained the slight risk over nearly the entire
forecast area. While instability will be limited and falling
with the loss of diurnal heating, increasing upper- level wind
support and a low- level jet developing should compensate a bit.
The main risks look to be isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado or two along the leading edge of the MCS
during the late afternoon and evening hours. The initial storm
development could also produce some marginally severe hail.
Folks with outdoor plans should stay aware of the latest
forecast information and have place to see shelter should
lightning or severe thunderstorms threaten.

Event total rainfall amounts have stayed steady around
0.75-1.50", with locally higher amounts over 2.0" possible over
parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Given the
recent dry conditions, am not too concerned about flash
flooding, but some minor flooding issues cannot be ruled out
where the heaviest totals occur.

The cold front will push through the area Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon, bringing drying conditions and clearing skies.
Winds from the NW may become gusty at times Sunday afternoon
(25 to 35 mph). Temperatures will return to near or slightly
below values Sunday, with this trend continuing through much of
next week. A couple of passing weak disturbances will bring
small rain chances Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Quiet conditions this morning will give way to increasing
thunderstorm coverage from west to east this afternoon through
late tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Cigs and
vsbys will be VFR outside of thunderstorm activity through the
afternoon, but heavy thunderstorms elements could bring MVFR or
IFR restrictions. MVFR low stratus will trail the post-frontal
precipitation through the remainder of the forecast period.
Gradient winds will increase from the S-SW, sustained at 10-15
kts with gusts of 18-24 kts this afternoon through the
overnight. Very late in the period, winds will become veer to
the WSW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS