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FXUS63 KPAH 290516
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather still on track the rest of the week.

- Chances for light rain (20-40 percent) return Saturday night
  into Sunday. Most places will see a tenth of an inch or less.

- Cooler temperatures closer to normal next week with continued
  daily rain chances. Heavier rain totals will be possible with
  around a 50 to 60 percent chance of seeing 1 inch of rainfall
  for the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A very stable/dry weather pattern will linger through the end of the
week under a partly cloudy sky with temperatures above normal in the
upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

A more unsettled pattern will arrive for the weekend mainly for
Saturday night into the day Sunday as rain chances (20-40%) increase
across the Quad State area. This will be the result of increasing
moisture and an ill-defined/weakening low pressure system passing
through. Overall totals are expected to be very light, generally
less than a tenth of an inch for most locations. In fact, there is
only around a 30% chance of seeing a quarter inch of rain across the
area. The later arrival also look little better for Halloween
festivities, even thou some nuisance rain may be moving in.

After the weekend precipitation, yet another/stronger upper level-
low and surface low is expected to approach/move through the Quad
State through much of next week. The low may end up becoming
centered directly overhead or at a minimum upper-level troughing may
become established along with increased moisture. That just means
temperatures will trend near normal or cooler than normal with
chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms through at
least Wednesday. The latest ensemble guidance continues to hint at a
better chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 50%
chance of seeing 1 inch or more of rain Monday through Wednesday
evening. There`s still some uncertainty on how the systems evolve
next week so stay tuned for updates on rainfall totals!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Tranquil conditions prevail tonight with high pressure in
control. Winds will remain light & variable. South winds
increase to 6-8 kts on Thursday by midday with diurnal heating.
Winds turn calm again Thursday evening with high cirrus
filtering in.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DW