039
FXUS63 KPAH 061128
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered light rain showers and possible a
  thunderstorm will move through area early this morning before
  departing the region by early this afternoon.

- After the rain exits the region early today, dry conditions
  are expected for the next several days.

- Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal this
  weekend, followed by a significant warming trend next week.
  High temperatures will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s
  Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

As of 07z today, light to moderate rain showers were located
across southeast Missouri, moving from west to east, along with
scattered thunderstorms further south across NE Arkansas and NW
Tennessee. Driven by increasing frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb
layer, this precipitation will continue to develop and move
eastward across southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and
western Kentucky through the early to mid morning hours today. A
few rumbles of thunder are possible as well thanks to lingering
leveled instability.

Rainfall totals through the morning hours will stay light,
mainly under 0.25". Model soundings to the north along the
Interstate 64 corridor show very dry low level moisture
profiles. This will limit the northward extent the
precipitation. As the associated surface cold front moves well
south and east of the region and high pressure arrives in its
wake, precipitation will end and skies will clear from northwest
to southeast during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 70s, followed by overnight lows
falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

After today, surface high pressure and increasing H5 ridging
will result in another long period of dry period which will last
most or all of next week. As southerly return flow increasing,
temperatures will warm back into the lower to middle 80s Monday
and Tuesday, followed by the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday
through Friday. The prolonged dry conditions, low humidity
levels, and dry fuels, will need to watch for potentially
elevated fire weather conditions for the latter half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Ongoing light rain showers will shift south and east of the
region by early this afternoon. Cannot rule out a brief MVFR
vsby restrictions under heavier rain activity, but conditions
should remain VFR the great majority of the time. Skies will
clear this afternoon and remain so the rest of the forecast
period. Winds will be light from the N to NW around 3-6 kts,
becoming calm tonight. Will need to watch for possible fog
develop late in the forecast period, but again confidence was
too low to include at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS