390
FXUS63 KPAH 040031
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
731 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered-Numerous showers and storms will accompany two
  frontal passages, the 1st through tomorrow morning, the 2nd
  late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Total
  rainfall amounts will average generally less than an inch.

- Each frontal passage will result in below normal temperatures
  in its wake with highs in the 70s on Thursday, heating up
  again in between with 80s Friday, before cooling off to the
  70s again over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A tongue of higher dew points just to our south will flux just
ahead of a model indicated weak ripple within the mean long
wave trof thru this evening, where the models hint at a few
showers or storms being possible. This is/has been seen on
satellite/radar with spotty activity detected within and nearby.
While it should largely stay more closely associated to the
tongue of moisture`s interaction with the triggering ripple/wave
and therefore just to our south, it`s possible some of this
sneaks into or pops in isolated fashion our far southern or far
southeastern counties briefly this afternoon/evening.

Pops spike overnight as the first cold front drops south and
into/thru the PAH FA. While at first glance there appears to be
little remaining CAPE in the 0-1KM layer, the models do suggest
a surface reflected low pressure center forms within the CWA and
rides coincident with the incoming boundary. It might provide
just enough lift to develop an isolated/elevated chance of
storms late tonight into early Thursday until fropa completes.
Low clouds come in on the cool side of the boundary and linger
til the wave/front pushes east. The slightly drier and cooler
air entrains as heights fall behind the front tmrw, eventually
ending pcpn chances. One thing to watch-- the models do hang the
boundary a little, at least on fropa progression, just as the
day is heating up, so it`s possible a few rogue cells could get
going along our far southern or eastern border areas before the
aforementioned metamorphosis is completed. All in all, the pops
won`t offer any tremendous relief to the D0/D1 conditions that
hover, with areal average qpf of a half inch or less rainfall
expected.

The primary long wave trof has one more cold fropa to offer by
week`s end. After a temporary cool-off to the 70s Thursday,
we`ll warm up nicely thru the 80s again Friday. This occurs just
ahead of the incoming next cold front, and as convective temps
are reached that afternoon, leads to more scattered
showers/storms that will continue said chances into the night as
the front completes passage. This pop spike in the high chance
to low likely range offers areal average qpf potential up to
about three quarters of an inch, while pop chances taper down
late in the night, perhaps lingering into early Saturday, until
the front and associated channeled streamwise vorticity
completes passage. Cooler/drier surface high pressure ushers in
pleasant 70s again for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Isolated to scattered shra and a few thunderstorms will move
south across the region between 03z-08z, accompanied by low VFR
to MVFR clouds and brief MVFR vsbys. Isolated to scattered
convection will end from west to east between 11z-15z, with VFR
conditions as convection ends. Light and variable winds will
shift to the northwest to north at 5-10kts between 03z-08z with
the passage of a cold front, persisting through midday.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...RST