549
FXUS63 KPAH 032342
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
542 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move through the
  area this afternoon through late tonight. A few strong to
  severe storms are possible mainly west of the Mississippi
  River.

- Dry but mild conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cool down back to typical late fall temperatures is forecast
  Friday and into early next week, along with continued dry
  conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Main focus today is the impending convective potential. Modified
observed and model forecast soundings show instability is
extremely limited currently, with a small unstable zone just
above the surface boundary layer. Large scale jet-level ascent
is approaching from the west but will have a lot of work to do
to steepen lapse rates in the 1.8" PWAT airmass that originated
in an east Pacific tropical cyclone. The air advecting into the
area currently on these gusty south to southeast winds is also
pretty homogeneous to what we already have in place although
some insolation is warming it up. This heating though is having
the effect of mixing lower dewpoints in. Richer low level
moisture is present in eastern Arkansas and surface winds shift
around to the south southwest just ahead of the approaching
front/convective line that is modeled by available CAMS.

HRRR and RRFS1 average out to about 80 J/kg of entrainment
factored MLCAPE in the 18 and 15z runs even with that slight
uptick in moisture/instability. Shear is quite good as this area
moves through with deep layer at about 50 kts or so and 0-1km
shear line parallel at about 22-25 kts. If we can get enough
instability for surface-based convection there would be a wind
and QLCS tornado threat. Based on the timing of solar
heating/advection and the trough it still looks like southeast
Missouri has the best chance to overachieve on instability and
yield some threat. Although the most likely outcome for now
looks like a weaker partially elevated line of convection or
heavy showers that passes fairly harmlessly. I`d say right now
about a 15-20% chance for a warning or two to be necessary in
SEMO and maybe 5-10% elsewhere. Areas of light to moderate rain
look to follow any convection. PWATs/rainfall efficiency should
be high but the intensity and duration of convection for now
still looks to limit flood potential.

Cold front behind all this comes through tonight cooling us off
a little. Another cold front is then progged for Friday morning
that cools us off even further and give us weekend lows close to
freezing. Moisture/rainfall potential with this second front
still appears low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Breezy SSE winds continue through the evening as a line of
showers slowly advances eastward. Lightning is extremely limited
to the point of not being likely enough to include in any TAF
site. Cigs lower to MVFR areawide, with IFR potential
decreasing. MVFR and possibly brief IFR vsbys are possible with
heavier rain. MVFR cigs continue into tomorrow as winds shift to
westerly. Cloud heights increase with VFR conditions becoming
likely later in the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...ATL