206
FXUS63 KPAH 032141
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
341 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will develop overnight into the early morning hours
  Tuesday. Some of the fog may be locally dense.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are forecast
  through Thursday, with a chance of showers and perhaps a few
  thunderstorms forecast on Friday.

- Another chance of rain is forecast Saturday night, and cooler
  temperatures will follow to end the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Surface high pressure and rising H5 heights over the region will
bring clear skies, calm winds, and low-level moisture
saturation. This will be favorable for fog development, mainly
during the predawn to early morning hours Tuesday morning. Some
of the fog may be locally dense.

During the day Tuesday, the surface high will translate east of
the region. Combined with persistent H5 ridging, the majority
of the work week will be dry and mild by November standards,
with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s
Tuesday through Thursday. Overnight lows will be mild as well,
mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.

A return to a more active pattern arrives Friday. A deep H5
trough passes through the Great Lakes region, a surface low will
develop across the central Great Plains and move into the Upper
Midwest by Friday night. A trailing cold front will initiate
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorm Friday afternoon into
Friday night. While the progged wind fields may be supportive of
organized convection, the forecast instability appears to be
quite meager, even by fall standards (50-150 J/kg of SBCAPE).
Ensemble guidance only give a 5-10% chance of CAPE values over
500 J/kg anywhere in the forecast area. It will be something to
watch for changes in the coming days.

A brief dry period is forecast during the daytime hours
Saturday, but another secondary disturbance will sweep through
the area Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring another
chance of rain, followed by much colder temperatures for Sunday
into early next week. High temperatures Sunday and next Monday
will only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s with overnight lows
in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure anchored over the TN Valley will drift to the
east, allowing return flow southerlies to develop tmrw.
Time/height cross sections show a dry column so little more than
FEW-SCT250 bases with the return flow tmrw is anticipated.
However, with high pressure providing light winds and clear
skies overnight, it is possible patchy/locally dense fog
develops.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$