852
FXUS63 KPAH 181140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
540 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms can be
  expected today into this evening, and a few strong to severe
  storms are possible.

- Numerous showers and chances of thunderstorms return late Wednesday
  night through Friday night.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with a
  return of seasonable conditions over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Surface low pressure will move through Missouri today, lifting a
warm front into northern portions of the PAH forecast area. Along
the warm front and ahead of the low, we will see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across our region through
the morning hours, with the greatest coverage in our northern
counties. As the low continues moving east, it will drag a weak
cold front through the area, increasing coverage this afternoon,
with the highest chances still across our northern counties.
Showers and storms will end from west to east late this
afternoon through the evening. Dry conditions will return late
tonight and continue through Wednesday evening.

There continues to be some potential for hail, small to possibly
low end severe, with stronger storms through this morning. The
severe potential increases late this afternoon just ahead of
the surface low and accompanying cold front with steepening
lapse rates and better instability. The main concern with the
late day storms continues to be hail, but isolated tornadoes
will be possible as we see increasing low level moisture just
ahead of the cold front along with veering low level winds.

A weak upper level ridge will give us dry conditions late tonight
into Wednesday.  By Wednesday night into Thursday, models show a
strong surface low over Texas lifting the today`s frontal
boundary back north into our area as a warm front. With the warm
front and the slow approach of the surface low through Friday,
showers and thunderstorms will return for the end of the work
week. Chances will quickly increase from southwest to northeast
late Wednesday night, with numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms across our entire region Thursday through Friday
evening. By late Friday night, scattered showers will be
tapering off from the west, with most of our area dry by
Saturday afternoon.

Forecast rainfall amounts today through Saturday are generally
in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range, with isolated higher amounts
possible. Most of this rainfall will be associated with the
late week system, and especially in the Thursday to Thursday
night time frame, when brief heavy rainfall is most likely.

Models are showing the potential for another system to affect
our region early next week. Chances of showers return
potentially on Monday.

Temperatures this week will above normal, with the warmest
temperatures today ranging from the lower to middle 60s in
southwest Indiana to the lower to middle 70s in southeast
Missouri. Behind our late week system, temperatures will drop
back to within a few degrees of seasonable readings over the
weekend into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Included LLWS until 15z with 2000 foot winds from the southwest
at 35-40kts, then surface winds will increase from the south to
southwest to around 10kts with gusts to 20 kts by mid to late
morning. On and off showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
through the TAF period with a warm front lifting through the
area today, and a cold front pushing through this evening. Low
VFR cigs will become predominantly MVFR by 16z and persist
through at least 06z, with few break to VFR possible. MVFR
vsbys will accompany SHRA/TSRA. After 06z, IFR cigs are
possible at KEVV/KOWB/KMVN, but kept cigs in current TAF at
BKN010 for now.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST