502
FXUS63 KPAH 311636
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures (low to
  mid 80s) will persist through the holiday weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Tuesday
  through early Thursday. Unfortunately, amounts will be light
  and likely won`t help much with our worsening drought
  situation.

- A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night, bringing
  well below normal temperatures for late in the week. A
  secondary frontal passage later Friday likely will keep the
  cooler temperatures going through next weekend with highs in
  the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a dry
northeasterly flow across our region today. This will continue on
Monday as well, despite the high pushing further east into the
Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, shortwave energy currently across the
Central Plains will slowly meander southeast towards our region by
Tuesday. This will help induce at least widely scattered showers and
storms by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of this activity may
linger into Wednesday as well.

The polar jet stream buckles sending a robust wave out of Canada mid-
week. A strong cold front is forecast to move through our cwa
Wednesday night into early Thursday. The main upper level forcing
remains well to our north, where an anomalously deep 500mb low
develops across the Northern Great Lakes Thursday. It then continues
to slowly spin across the Great Lakes/Southern Canada through
Saturday. Convergence along the front itself may be enough to
squeeze out some light precip though Wednesday evening through early
Thursday. A secondary frontal passage may occur on Friday/Friday
night, with another wave of light QPF possible.

Unfortunately, rainfall amounts this week look quite light with many
areas only seeing around one or two tenths, if that. LREF
probabilities have trended down compared to 24 hours ago, with less
than a 20% chance of QPF > 0.5" this week. Certainly not ideal and
likely won`t help much with our worsening drought situation.

Temperatures will continue to average below normal this week,
especially behind the mid-week frontal passage. It continues to look
like a reinforcing shot of cooler air comes in next weekend, with
only a temporary rebound into the low 80s expected on Friday. So
likely will have several days with highs only in the low-mid 70s
Thursday through next weekend, despite the NBM struggling to latch
on. Several nights may dip into the 40s as well. Possibility of a
few record lows/cool highs are on the table.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Light
northeasterly winds will become lighter overnight. Moisture
profiles currently do not appear favorable for widespread fog
formation overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...JGG