513
FXUS63 KPAH 011752
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1252 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front begins to move in from west to east tonight into
  Friday bringing rain showers with PoPs peaking (80-100%) in
  the morning and early afternoon hours. No severe weather is
  expected, but some rumbles of thunder are possible.

- Small rain chances (10-30%) linger Saturday, but high pressure
  will build Sunday brining dry conditions once again.
  Temperatures should be close to seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The large swirling upper low over the central Plains is hard to
miss when you take a look at our weather picture this morning.
Ahead of that low is rich east Pacific and Gulf moisture through
a deep column with PWAT values over 2 inches producing areas of
rain across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. A combination of jet
level and frontal ascent should keep a fairly broad area of rain
and embedded showers and a storm or two going. These will move
over the area tonight and through the day Friday. Peak rain
chances look to be Friday morning, but expect at least some
lingering rain to trail behind the cold front that should get
through the area by midday tomorrow. Instability continues too
look too meager for severe weather threats, and rainfall
coverage and intensity look too limited for much flood risk
given the antecedent conditions over the area.

Highs behind the front fall into the mid 70s. A reinforcing
front moves through Monday bringing drier and slightly cooler
air into the area which should help morning minimum temperatures
fall into the 40s. A little bit of a trend to warmer
temperatures looks plausible towards the end of next week but
nothing to the degree we are seeing today.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the day
today. Poorer flight conditions move in tonight as a front
approaches from the west. An initial period of MVFR will likely
see IFR visibility in showers and probably fall to IFR ceilings
by Friday morning through at least midday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG