137
FXUS63 KPAH 151058
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
558 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and storm chances continue through mid week.
  Highest chances appear to be focused tonight through Monday
  and again late Wednesday into early Thursday. Localized heavy
  rainfall may lead to flooding issues.

- Humidity levels will remain high through the week and temperatures
  will creep into the upper 80s by mid week.

- Hot, humid, and dry conditions are forecast next weekend with
  highs in the 90s and heat index readings around 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The upper level pattern will feature troughing across the central
CONUS sandwiched in between ridging near the Southeast U.S. coast
and across the southwest U.S. through Thursday. At the surface,
moist southerly flow (dewpoints in the lower 70s) will continue to
stream northward across our region through mid week. This will
provide fuel for daily chances for showers and storms (typical
summer-time!). There does appear to be two periods where more
widespread activity is expected. The first is from tonight through
Monday associated with a weak wave pushing east from the Ozarks and
across our cwa. The second is a northern stream wave and associated
cold front that move into the region later Wednesday and may linger
into Thursday.

Precipitable water values will remain high, particularly Sunday
night/Monday and again later Wednesday into early Thursday. They
should be around 2" both of these periods, supporting very efficient
rain producers from convection. HREF probability matched mean
indicates pockets of 2-3" through Monday evening. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some 4" reports again, as indicated by the HRRR and
ARW (which would support some fairly substantial flash flooding).
Again, this should be fairly localized, with many areas only
receiving 0.5" or less.

Regarding severe storms, the best chance looks to be late Wednesday
afternoon into the night when a cold front sinks south towards our
region. Should see 0-6 km shear values of at least 30 kts (although
the stronger flow certainly looks to remain north of us). CSU-MLP
probabilities indicate some 15% severe. Beforehand, there actually
is a little bit of shear showing up in guidance on Monday. Maybe
pushing 25 kts or so. Could be just enough to gen up somewhat
organized convection that could produce some stronger wind gusts.

The upper ridge to our west will build east Friday into next
weekend, becoming centered over the Ohio Valley by next Sunday. This
will effectively squash our daily precipitation chances, keeping us
dry for several days. Looks like our first 90s of the year are very
likely next weekend, which combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, should lead to heat index readings around or just above 100
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Combination of low stratus and patchy fog is impacting the
eastern half of the region this morning. Vsbys should improve
within an hour or two, and cigs should lift to VFR levels by
18z. Isolated convection is possible this afternoon, mainly
across west KY and southeast MO. Better chance for SHRA and
isolated thunder exists later this evening and overnight across
southeast MO and far west KY, and these areas may eventually
drop to MVFR cigs as well. There is a signal for some more fog
across northeast terminals tonight. Winds will remain rather
light and variable through the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP