960
FXUS63 KPAH 160506
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1206 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning continues thru tomorrow with Heat
  Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.

- Storm chances, including strong storm chances, are best with
  frontal passages Sunday night and Thursday. Both frontal
  passages bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

When you look at an upper level chart you can see about a 600dm
ridge at 500mb centered just to the southwest of the area. The
thermometer at the surface apparently sees the same thing as our
temperatures are approaching the mid 90s across the southern
half of the area and upper 80s in the northeast. Dewpoints are
mixing down, mercifully, just a tiny bit into the mid 70s. Heat
index values are still over 105 or headed that way amid clear
skies. With the deep mixing LCL heights are up over 8000 ft
which will significantly limit any prospects of showers or
storms this afternoon.

Tomorrow looks just as hot with max apparent Ts in the 105-110
range. The cumulative heat of this extended streak will continue
to make for a dangerous situation. Our newer "Heat Risk" tool
still shows level 3 and 4 (out of 4) categorization across the
entire CWA.

A zonal jet max to the north finally builds far enough south
Sunday to nudge a cold front through Sunday night into Monday.
Deep mixing produces very high LCL heights again tomorrow and
that hot (relatively drier) air near the surface may limit
parcel buoyancy somewhat, but 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE looks to
still be available when the front pushes through giving us
decent shower and thunderstorm chances if the front can lift the
parcels high enough to get going. If they do the potential for
localized downbursts/winds will be there given the high 0-3km
theta-e difference and low level inverted V/DCAPE.

Wednesday and Thursday a shortwave trough works off the Rockies
and into the central plains and upper midwest. This kicks up
flow out of the southwest and the lift and moisture look likely
to combine to produce shower and thunderstorm chances.
Deterministic GFS is a little sharper with this wave but the
ECMWF also has it as do most ensemble members. Will need to
watch for some severe weather potential if that signal remains
given the lift/deep shear available with a warm and humid
airmass. Low level shear actually creeps up just a bit in the
GFS deterministic run. CSU-ML and CIPS analogs are also
flickering just a bit over that period as well. Once the
shortwave passes a cold front seems to have a respectable chance
to make it into the area by the weekend. The current
deterministic forecast has highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints
in the mid 60s, which would feel positively Baltic compared to
what we have seen for the last week!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast overnight through the day Sunday.
High clouds move in through the north with calm to light winds
at the surface. Some minor vsby decreases are possible at
climatologically favored sites. Winds increase to around 6-8kts
out of the west during the day. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms enter the forecast late afternoon into the evening
hours, with model spread in location/timing high enough to
leave at PROB30 for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ATL