485
FXUS63 KPAH 142032
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
332 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may
  pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
  accompany all storms with at least an isolated threat for
  flash flooding.

- Heat indices will climb into the triple digits and possibly
  exceed advisory threshold throughout the region Wednesday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A shortwave passing through the area this afternoon and evening will
help to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The coverage may become a little more widespread as it passes
through; however, the cloud cover has helped to keep the instability
a bit lower than Sunday afternoon. It won`t take much of a break in
the clouds to help bump it up into the early evening. Overall the
severe threat appears limited, but downburst winds and torrential
rainfall will be possible under any storms. Again, the threat will
be greatest with longer breaks in the cloud cover.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorm activity will continue throughout
the week with dewpoints lingering into 70s with much of the threat
diurnally driven. Not much change in the severe and flooding
potential throughout the week with damaging downburst winds possible
each afternoon and very slow motion (with weak shear). PWAT values
will be around 2 inches through much of this time period, so this
does continue to support at least isolated flash flooding risk each
day.

Heat and humidity will be a concern through the weekend with high
temperatures warming into the low 90s with the aforementioned
increased humidity values. Heat indices will push up to around 100
or even 105 degrees Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Convection will be the main concern for the TAF sites again
today into this evening. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely
develop or linger this afternoon through the night. MVFR
visibilities will be possible tonight with some patchy fog
development. A brief break in the showers and storms will be
possible overnight into Tuesday morning before additional
convection develops Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC