314
FXUS63 KPAH 220345
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily thunderstorm chances of 15 to 30% are forecast during
  the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperature and humidity levels will be near typical late
  August levels through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Broad troughing is centered to our east and northeast putting
the area in a moderate northwesterly flow aloft. A jet max works
in on the backside of this trough through Sunday morning keeping
it roughly in place. There is a small window for thundershowers
across parts of SEMO Saturday afternoon but the chances are low
(15%).

By Monday that trough works east far enough to allow the heat
and humidity to start to creep back into the area. This opens
the potential again for daily mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with fairly low coverage overall (15-30%). The
best chance for activity for now looks to be Wednesday afternoon
and evening when a little sharper shortwave pushes through. If
any severe weather threat is to emerge in the next 7 days it
looks like this could be the period. If the trough position and
shear/instability remain consistent we might be able to start
messaging a threat, but for now it appears too low
predictability/threat for much concern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of this TAF
issuance; however, some shallow ground fog will be possible late
tonight into Saturday morning at CGI/PAH. Otherwise, light winds
and improving conditions can be expected through the day
Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC