842
FXUS63 KPAH 152328
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A headlining late season heat wave with high temperatures
  near or at record levels continues thru the rest of the week.

- A cold front`s late weekend passage will bring a chance of
  rain and cooler and less humid conditions early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The blast of furnace heat shows no signs of abating the remainder of
the week. The upper (H5) high holds strong in the upper 590s DM
while gradually retrograding across the FA. H8 temps actually
increase 2-3C during this period, resulting in forecast surface
highs challenging mid September record warmth both in terms of
absolute maximum but also some record warm minimums are in play each
day the remainder of the week. Combined with dews holding pretty
firmly in the upper 60s-lower 70s over most of that time, resultant
triple digit heat indices will too.

With the upper high so strong and influential, our only short term
chance at appreciable rainfall is with rimfire storms. The nearest
such chance is late today into the evening, with a front that is
positioned off to the north. If some of its heat-of-day
evolution can blow off down as far as I-64, this might offer the
best chance at an isolated exception to what will otherwise
continue as basically day-after-day dry conditions.

The next best chance thereafter is with some late weekend ridge
breakdown as a cold front makes its play toward the region. Its
passage brings cooler temperatures and less humid conditions
for early next week; enjoy that while we can as a resurging
signal for broad upper ridging over the country`s mid section
puts our 6-10 and 8-14 projections back into "Above Normal" for
temperatures, as if summer just does not want to yield, autumnal
equinox or not.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected across the Quad State
during the TAF period, though some vsby drops are possible at
climatologically favored sites like KCGI overnight. Showers are
possible just north of the Quad State through much of the TAF
period with limited potential at KMVN (20-30%). Winds become
light tonight, then increase to 6-8kts out of the southwest
tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ATL