162
FXUS63 KPAH 301122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal highs in the upper 80s and low 90s are expected
  Wednesday and Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures in the
  low and mid 70s beginning Friday and continuing into the
  weekend.

- A cold front begins to move in from west to east early Friday
  morning bringing rain showers with PoPs peaking (80-90%) in
  the morning and early afternoon afternoon hours. No severe
  weather is expected but some thunder is possible.

- Small PoPs (10-30%) linger Saturday, but high pressure will
  build Sunday bringing dry conditions once again.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Ridging continues to sit overhead bringing with it unseasonably
warm temperatures across the region. Today temperatures are
forecast to peak in the upper 80s and low 90s with cloud cover
decreasing going into the afternoon. Dewpoints will be slightly
higher today especially across SEMO, far western KY and SW IL
as the southerly/southwesterly winds advect higher dewpoints
into these areas. Similar highs are in the forecast for Thursday
as clouds will return with the trough out west beginning to
move into the region preventing more significant warming.
Dewpoints will continue to climb into the mid and upper 60s with
further moisture advection from the southerly flow Thursday.

The cold front associated with the previously discussed trough
will begin to make its way through the region early Friday
morning. Highs are forecast to only reach the mid to upper 70s
at this time. PoPs will peak between 80-90% across the region
during the morning and early afternoon hours before tapering off
slightly into Friday evening. Instability remains low for this
rain event so no severe weather is expected, however, some
rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. Probabilistic
guidance continues to suggest only a 40-50% chance of an inch or
more of rain from this event. Concerns for flooding remain low
at this point.

Cooler, seasonable temperatures (lower 70s) will continue into
the weekend with low PoPs (10-30%) through Saturday as the
system lingers. However, drier conditions will return again
Sunday with high pressure moving in once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for all
sites. High clouds will decrease in coverage in the late
morning/early afternoon with increasing S/SSW winds between
7-10kts and gusts in the low- to mid-teens for a few hours. High
cloud cover will then increase again in the evening with the
introduction of some mid-level clouds around 7-8kft at night.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AZ
DISCUSSION...AZ
AVIATION...AZ