508
FXUS63 KPAH 282252
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather finishes out this work week.

- Rain chances return this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures closer to normal greet the new week with
  continued daily rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A persistence strategy, steady-as-she-goes approach is best in
the near term with our continued high pressure dominated
forecast. That means daily highs around 80F thru Friday, a good
dozen or so degrees above climatological norms. Mild lows will
run 5-10F above climo., bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

Rain chances make their emergence in the forecast this weekend,
which heralds a wetter period extending into next week with
daily rain chances prevailing. The first half of the weekend
still looks dry, with most model members holding off on
appreciable rain chances til Saturday night (and Sunday). The
chance occurs coincident with the opening up and flattening out
of a weak wave of low pressure that makes its way across the MS
Valley over the course of the weekend. With little instability
to tap, we`re looking at probably 1/2 inch or less cumulative
rainfall totals, mostly in the 06z-18z Sunday time frame; a
little before and a little after not-withstanding.

A brief pause/lull in chances occurs starting out the new week,
before a broad synoptic low winds out of the Rockies and Plains
states and tracks our direction. Its current tracking takes the
parent low center to our south, which is pinched on both sides
by high pressure ridging in an inverted omega-like blocking
look to the pattern; the net effect will be more clouds/pcpn
chances daily and temperatures a little closer to seasonal norms
with highs in the lower 70s. The further southward dive of the
low means rain totals on this morning`s 12Z runs have basically
halved from the previous runs...but we still may end up
verifying the projected "above normal" rainfall for the period
with the daily rain chances continuing. Best such chances at
this time look to be Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region with high pressure in
control. A subtle increase in the pressure gradient overnight
should help to mitigate fog concerns, with winds remaining light
& variable at most terminals. The column has also been running
drier compared to model guidance due to more robust mixing this
afternoon. South winds increase to 6-8 kts on Thursday by midday
with diurnal heating.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW