164
FXUS63 KPAH 251853
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
153 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for daily peak
  heat index values of 100 to 105. The prolonged heat wave may
  continue into the weekend for portions of the Quad State.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected each afternoon
  and will provide some localized relief from the heat wave.
  Locally torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds
  will be possible.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend
  and into Monday. Torrential downpours, lightning, and some
  gusty winds will be possible.

- The heat wave will abate Tuesday, when the entire region will
  see high temperatures below 90 and maximum heat indices below
  100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Aside from a few isolated showers, convection has largely been north
of our cwa so far this afternoon. Still likely to see some isolated
convection bubble up, but with the 594 dam ridge positioned slightly
further west over KY/TN, it seems to be helping to suppress
convection over our cwa moreso than the last couple of days. This
ridge will gradually break down over the coming days and into the
weekend. Despite this, the heat and humidity will continue to grip
the region.

Convection will be isolated to widely scattered at best Thursday and
Friday with little in the way of forcing. There appears to be a
subtle weakness in the flow to our northeast Friday night into
Saturday, which may be enough to ignite higher coverage of
convection during this time. The spatial coverage of clouds and
convection will dictate just how warm the weekend ends up being.
Precipitable water values increase to over 2", which will help
support very efficient rainfall rates from any storms.

The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday, but it
continues to look like it might need to be extended into the
weekend and possibly even Monday across portions of our cwa.
However, this decision likely won`t be made until Friday, when
confidence in the placement and overall coverage of convection
is better known.

A shortwave trough dips down across the Great Lakes on Monday, which
should allow a cold front to sink south across our area Monday
night. This allows showers and storm chances to peak across our
area. Most guidance tends to indicate the boundary making passage
and drier air starting to work in on Tuesday, but some convection
may linger across our south. Temperatures are forecast to finally
fall below 90 degrees and dewpoints should fall below 70 degrees
next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Glancing further out towards the upcoming 4th of July weekend,
ensembles generally show northwest flow across our area with the
primary ridge set up over the south central/southwest U.S. and
troughing across the northeast U.S. This may allow a somewhat active
period to develop across our region.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

SCT-BKN cu field with bases between 4-6kft this afternoon.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected as well,
dissipating by 23-00z. Southwest winds will be around 4-6 kts
today. There may be just enough wind overnight to prevent as
much fog formation as we had this morning, but still likely will
have some patchy development. For now just have mention at
KMVN. Cu field will once again bubble up by late morning
tomorrow followed by additional isolated convection during the
afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP