965
FXUS63 KPAH 162333
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat warning conditions continue today with Heat
  Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.

- At least a few thunderstorms are expected tonight and this
  evening ahead of a cold front. A few storms could be severe
  with damaging winds the main threat.

- Shower and storm chances return Wednesday and Thursday with
  some strong/severe thunderstorm risk.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Dangerous heat and humidity persists today for one more day.
Temperatures are running slightly ahead of where they were
yesterday, with dewpoints sticking into the middle 70s. A cold
front currently working through IA/IL should bring a bit of a
respite tomorrow. In the meantime we will be watching for
showers and thunderstorms in the soupy airmass ahead of the
front.

Convective temperature is about 95 degrees and we are reaching
that over SEMO and towering cu appear to be responding. There
should be about 2000 J/kg available above a deeply mixed
boundary layer if parcels can keep going. With that much cu this
early in the day I tend to like the chances for a few storms to
get going by 3 to 5 pm. There is a more organized convective
complex over western IL ahead of the parent shortwave trough
over NW Missouri. The HRRR analysis is about 150 miles too far
west with the shortwave position and isn`t resolving this
convection well just yet. I think the overall solution with new
convection over Missouri upscaling into an MCS over the I-64
corridor looks reasonable, but maybe speed it up about 3 hours
from the HRRR solution which would put it in play for the region
by 6 to 9 pm or so. Strong DCAPE/low-level inverted V soundings
coupled with moderate westerly deep wind shear support an
elevated risk for damaging wind/downbursts with any storms that
get going, especially if they upscale into a mature MCS.

The front should be through the area fast enough to knock
everyone below heat advisory tomorrow. With a little less heat
and humidity behind the front. By Wednesday the subtropical jet
sinks a little further south which helps pull some of the soup
back into the area giving us shower and thunderstorm chances. A
more organized shortwave remains on track for Thursday. We
remain a little concerned about severe weather potential with
this feature with abundant moisture/instability coupled with a
favorable shear pocket. Some window for severe appears possible
Wednesday through Thursday and CSU-ML and CIPS analogs continue
to show some clustering of potential there as well. Wind would
be the primary concern.

ECMWF/GFS both show a stronger longwave trough for late next
weekend that is still trying to introduce cooler/drier
conditions but we are still yet to see a clear cold frontal
passage show up in the current deterministic runs and we
maintain max temps in the mid 80s through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Late afternoon thunderstorm activity is diminishing for the
early evening. A boundary moves through late evening with
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front (highest
chances in the north). With calmer winds in the south, some
vsby drops near dawn are possible, especially for
climatologically favored sites. Cigs may approach or lower into
MVFR in the north early morning. Winds shift to northwesterly
tomorrow around 6-10kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...ATL