479
FXUS63 KPAH 110630
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally
  mild.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Despite the Omega blocking-like pattern`s hold, there are
subtleties at play in the otherwise 7 day forecast of dry and
seasonally mild conditions. One example is our current cloud
cover associated with a subtle pva kink in the overtop-the-ridge
flow. Gridded time/height cross sections suggest this ribbon of
moisture manifest with the associated deck of clouds lingers
into the mid morning hours before it disperses. If that holds,
fog chances should lessen. But if/where breaks occur, fog can
quickly become an issue, esp in our far east. We`ll have to keep
a close eye upon it thru daybreak but will stick with our
inherited/persistence strategy nowcast for now.

The warmest temps of the period look to be in the early half of
the next work week, when H5 heights peak into the 588 DM range,
reflecting a 60+ DM increase from now. This will lead to a bump
back into the lower 80s starting Monday but esp Tuesday and
potentially bleeding into Wednesday, which by then will
represent an almost 10 degree above seasonal normal high. Lows
move similarly, into the mid 50s, also close to 10F above norms
by then.

The high stays strong enough to maintain its predominant
influence thru the remainder of next week, but does show signs
of breaking down a little as low pressure presses in upon it
from the west by week`s end. In response, temps should retreat
back a little, more solidly into the 70s for highs, but still
round out a few degrees above normal on the daily. Rain chances
look scarce until 200+ hours into the forecast, so perhaps
before the end of the following weekend we`ll see them
re-emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Current satellite trends suggest enough clear skies/scattered
clouds, esp in our east, for patchy fog to offer at least
temporary vsby restrictions as a potential flight hazard thru
daybreak. Otherwise the forecast features a high pressure
dominated pattern with SCT-BKN VFR bases generally 5-7K FT AGL
thru the effective valid time of the terminal forecast package.
Obviously, where clouds are more robust pre-daybreak, fog will
be less of a concern; gridded time/height cross sections do hint
at that potential evolution with a narrow ribbon of moisture
showing thru about mid morning, after which it squeezes out with
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$