463
FXUS63 KPAH 231725
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-40% chance of patchy fog early Monday morning,
  especially along and northwest of the Ohio River.

- Elevated isolated showers and storms may clip Carter and
  Ripley county Monday morning with a 30% chance of rainfall
  between one to two tenths of an inch.

- Temperatures will quickly return to more seasonable by
  Wednesday with an increase in humidity levels along with
  20-30% chance of daily showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A broad H5 trough with northwesterly flow is centered over the Ohio
Valley this afternoon with sfc high pressure in control. Drier air
above 800 mb has allowed for dewpoints to mix down into the upper
50s in some spots with temperatures running about 5 degrees below
normal. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for
radiational cooling. Leaned below NBM for low temperatures Monday
morning that range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog will be
possible again with the probabilistic NBM/LAMP guidance supporting a
20-40% chance. The other concern will be the potential for a
elevated complex of storms to clip Carter and Ripley county as a H5
shortwave approaches. Limited NBM PoPs to a 30% chance for a
tenth or two inch of rainfall as most of the 12z CAMs have
shifted more south towards the better instability.

Temperatures quickly trend more seasonable by Wednesday as a warm
front lifts north with humidity levels on the rise for the latter
half of the week. The FA will remain sandwiched between an upper
level ridge and trough that will send additional disturbances our
way beginning Wednesday. Daily rain chances through Thursday only
range from 20-30% with even lower chances heading into next weekend
as another area of sfc high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Tranquil weather conditions will prevail this afternoon with light
northwest winds around 5-7 kts. Winds quickly turn calm tonight
with mostly clear skies that will support the potential for
some patchy fog early Monday morning. There is a 30-40% chance
of at least MVFR conditions across the western terminals, but
isolated lower reductions that are difficult to pinpoint
similar to this morning will be possible. Winds increase to 3-4
kts out of the south Monday morning after sunrise.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW