955
FXUS63 KPAH 191112
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early Sunday
  evening, with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal
  in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees both today and Sunday.

- The passage of a cold front will begin a cooling trend Monday,
  with temperatures by Tuesday finally back down to near to even
  a little below seasonal normals. Near normal temperatures
  will then persist through the end of the week.

- The cold front will bring 40-70% chances of showers and storms
  to our region late Sunday night through Tuesday, with the
  highest chances Monday into Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A gradually weakening upper level ridge will continue the heat wave
through the weekend.  Temperatures will remain 15 to 20 degrees
above normal today and Sunday with highs in the middle 90s to around
100 degrees.  It will feel a little less stifling with dew points
dipping down into the 60s and southwest to west winds increasing to
5 to 10 mph.

With the upper ridge breaking down, models show a cold front pushing
into the PAH forecast area (fa) late Sunday into Sunday night.
Behind the front, winds will shift to the north and 30-50% chances
of showers and thunderstorms will spread into most of southern
Illinois, southeast Missouri and southwest Indiana late Sunday night
into Monday morning. Chances will increase and spread southeast
Monday afternoon across the entire PAH fa, with 60-70% chances north
and west to 30-40% chances southeast. 30-40% chances will linger
across the entire area Monday night, tapering off west to east
Tuesday. Rainfall totals are not too impressive, generally from two
tenths to a half inch. Dry conditions can then be expected the
remainder of the work week.

More significant will be the return of cooler temperatures.  Highs
Monday will range from the lower to middle 80s north to the lower
90s south.  By Tuesday, highs will be near to actually a little
below normal, ranging from the lower to middle 70s northwest to the
lower 80s southeast. These highs will persist through the end
of the week, with seasonable overnight lows in the middle 50s to
around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

MVFR fog possible until 13z for mainly KPAH, otherwise VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period. Calm to light and
variable winds will become west/southwest around 5kts after 14z,
then light south around 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST