232
FXUS63 KPAH 160815
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
315 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will produce heavy rain and areas of flash
  flooding through late tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is in
  effect for much of the area.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening.
  Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the main
  threats.

- The hottest temperatures of the season are expected this
  weekend. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are forecast,
  and there will be an elevated risk of heat-related heath
  impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A stationary frontal boundary along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders
will gradually lift northward into the heart of the forecast
area this afternoon. An approaching surface low over Missouri
will act as a focus for vigorous convective development along
the front through late tonight. Forecast soundings show a
classic skinny CAPE profile favorable for heavy rain
development as well as PWAT values of 2.0-2.3" and warm cloud
layer depths of 11-14kft feet. Any convective development will
likely train from west to east along the frontal boundary and
feature 1-3" per hour rainfall rates, easily enough for flash
flood development.

Across southeast MO, convection is already ongoing
and will end sooner, so have issued a Flash Flood Watch here
that is effect now through 24z. Further east, have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for areas of southern IL along and south of
Highway 13 and all of western KY from 16z today to 05z Tuesday.
Not everyone in the Flash Flood Watch will see heavy rain, but
it`s quite likely there will be scattered pockets that see a
quick 1.5-3.0" with locally higher amounts up to 4.0" possible.
Depending on mesoscale trends, the Watch may need to be adjusted
slightly in areal coverage later today.

We`ll see a lull in activity beginning Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday morning as the surface low moves east of the region.
However, it will be a short break as another cold front and
vigorous H5 shortwave move into the region from the W/NW. This
will lead to additional widespread thunderstorm development
Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night. With very robust
destabilization and elevated deep layer shear for mid-June, the
risk for organized severe convection appears to be increasing.
SPC has expanded the Day 3 Outlook to include a slight risk for
the locations in the forecast area near and north/west of the
Ohio River, with a marginal risk further south/east. At this
time, all severe hazards appear to be on the table, including
damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail. If the setup
continues to improve, higher severe weather probabilities could
be needed. Heavy rain will be a concern again, with another
0.75-1.50" currently forecast, but higher totals are possible
locally.

After the storms clear out with the passage of a cold front on
Wednesday night, the region will see another lull in
precipitation with seasonably warm temperatures and humidity
levels. However, the hottest air of the season looks to arrive
for the weekend. A 594 dm ridge looks to set up shop over the
Mid- South, and we`ll see temperatures warm into the lower to
middle 90s Saturday and Sunday. There will be no shortage of
humidity, so heat index values of 100 to 105F are expected both
days. This pattern will continue beyond the weekend into early
next week. The experimental NWS HeatRisk product shows moderate
to major impacts during this weekend, so the risk for heat-
related illness will be elevated.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Rain and embedded thunderstorms are working in from the
southwest. Impacts at POF and vicinity should continue for a
few hours eventually moving into CGI. Its less likely to see
bigger impacts through the overnight further east although fog
and low stratus could become a factor by around 10z everywhere.

A brief break before another round of showers and storms fires
up by 16-18z is anticipated, with most sites in the area getting
at least a piece of that. Left it at prevailing shower activity
although there will likely be lulls, it definitely appears to be
a more on than off type day right now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening
     for ILZ084>094.
MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening
     for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...JGG