822
FXUS61 KPBZ 030150
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
850 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near-normal temperatures are generally favored this week, save a few
day-to-day fluctuations above average. Light rain chances increase
north of Pittsburgh late Wednesday, with more substantial rain
chances on Friday on a cold front with a potential cooldown
thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry with decreasing clouds
- Lingering clouds early tonight could result in above average
  low temperatures.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Upper-level subsidence will aid in decreasing cloud fractions into
the overnight hours, however, there is some uncertainty in this.
Should clouds be maintained longer, temperatures may remain above
average overnight. In the event they clear as forecast, a calm night
with average low temperatures is favored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability light showers along / sprinkles north of I-80 Monday
- Dry and seasonable conditions persist otherwise.
----------------------------------------------------------------

A fast-moving shortwave will cross the region Monday afternoon
and push a weak surface cold front through the region during
the afternoon along with an associated moisture-starved front.
The frontal boundary result in little more than a wind shift
(veering to the west) and slight uptick in clouds, but enough
cold advection at 850mb could create a lake- enhanced shower
that skirts areas north of I-80. Any precipitation that falls
will be short-lived, very light, and result in little, if any,
measurable rain. Otherwise, near normal temperature with breezy
afternoon winds will characterize the day.

Strong surface high pressure developing south of the region
underneath quasi-zonal flow (slight NW angle though) portends
continued dry weather for Tuesday. Subtle cool advection will
knock area readings down a degree or two from Monday but still
be near the daily average.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
- Next system arrives Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning,
  with variances on southern extent of precipitation field.
- Active pattern hints at potentially deeper trough development
  heading into the next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Fast shortwave movement out of the Pacific northwest is
expected to enter the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. Ensembles strongly
favor the trough center remaining north of the region but vary
in the degree of depth (with nominal timing variances), which
will play a major role in the southward extent of precipitation
chances. The speed of movement and high likelihood of marginal
cooling aloft/behind the surface front minimizes the risk of
developing winter precipitation types while keeping rainfall
accumulations low (current data suggests only 15-30% probability
of totals exceeding 0.25").

The brief cooldown Thursday is likely to feature dry weather as
high pressure returns underneath brief shortwave ridging.
Ensembles suggest the pattern remains active thereafter with
additional shortwave movement creating periodic precipitation
chances starting Friday. However, cluster analysis suggests that
variations in trough depth as well as timing suggests a more
unclear picture for exact timing of future precipitation periods
and degree of cooling (plus any potential temperature rebound).
It is unlikely any scenario will feature headline-worthy
weather, but a mention of higher elevation snow (low
accumulation) could enter the discussion late in the weekend
into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions mainly for the area through the TAF
period. The only concern would be the ZZV terminal with the
clearing skies tonight and additional moisture, this may result
in some MVFR cigs and potentially a IFR visibility through dawn.
Given the lighter winds, the visibility will mainly be a
concern. Thus, put in a tempo group for ZZV. In fact, the HREF
probs give a 60% prob for MVFR visibility. The rest of the
terminals should remain dry with VFR conditions. Winds will
begin to gust tomorrow afternoon from the west with the approach
of a weak trough from the north. Expect gusts reaching up to 25
knots at times. Otherwise, expected lower and mid level cloud
cover through the period.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will continue to support high confidence (>80%
chance) of VFR through at least mid week. A weak disturbance
brings rain chances back to the area Wednesday into Thursday,
but confidence in any associated restrictions impacting area
terminals remains low at this time.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek/Lupo
SHORT TERM...Frazier/88
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Milcarek/Shallenberger