108
FXUS61 KPBZ 061736
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
136 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6pm tonight for a large portion
of our region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms expect this afternoon and
evening, damaging wind gusts will be the main threat

2) Daily shower/thunderstorm chances return later next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A passing mesoscale convective system (MCS) will continue to
track into eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West
Virginia over the next 4 to 6 hours. Damaging wind gusts along
the leading edge of the MCS are expected for areas south of I-80
and north of Morgantown, WV; a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 6pm. Wind gusts will likely range between 50 to 65
mph; down trees and power lines are likely. Rainfall amounts
will likely range from a half to one inch, flooding isn`t likely
due to the progressive advancement of the MCS.

In the wake of the passing MCS, there could be redevelopment of
isolated strong to severe storms near the northern and southern
flank of the remnant convection. There is a question of whether
if there is enough time for the environment to recovery,
cooling aloft, to prompt new updrafts. The Watch may need to be
extended or expanded if that occurs. A special weather balloon
may be released in the wake of the MCS to capture what the
temperature profile looks like aloft.

The probability of severe storms decreases between 8pm to 11pm
tonight. There may be training showers and storms that could
create isolated swaths of 1 inch of rain or higher. Urban
flooding would be the main concern given it has been dry for a
number of days.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ridging is progged to build back in early next week among all
ensemble guidance with some uncertainty in temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday as the departing trough to the east exhibits
some timing differences as does the orientation and strength of
the building ridge. Lingering troughing could hold temperatures
in the upper 70s while quicker ridging could point to 80s for
the majority of the week. Either way, a return of drier and
warmer weather is anticipated for at least the first half of
next week. Ridging then may break down some and allow for some
summertime-like afternoon showers and storms, though with
surface high pressure in the vicinity, coverage shouldn`t be
widespread or bring a notable severe weather risk. High
temperatures will be highly dependent on coverage of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Medium confidence forecast with slightly lower confidence
overnight into the early morning hours Sunday depending when
and if low clouds and or fog develops.

Showers and storms will impact most of the airports this
afternoon with a brief drop to MVFR and perhaps IFR in moderate
to heavy rainfall. After this moves through, there will be a
lull in the activity until more develops around 22Z and could
last as late as 4Z. It doesn`t appear to be widespread unless
cells congeal into a line.

After the storms pass this evening, attention shifts to fog
development. HREF mean has high probs for sub IFR VIS at DUJ and
LBE. Still low confidence on how much develops. Sunday VFR
weather returns.

Southwest wind around 10 kts with occasional gusts into the 20
kt range during day becomes nearly calm this evening into
Sunday.

Outlook...
Daily thunderstorm and associated restriction chances begin Tuesday
after a dry Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...McMullen