100
FXUS61 KPBZ 120559
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
159 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update Aviation Discussion .
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remnants from Isaias depart this morning, clouds will
decrease in coverage this afternoon.

2) Rain chances return mid-week; impactful weather is possible
Friday/Saturday with a strong low pressure system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A few stray showers are noted near the ridges due to orographic
lift and greatest proximity to coastal low development, but
median 24hr rain through 2pm Monday sits only around an
additional 0.1 to 0.25 inches east of Pittsburgh. Creeks and
streams may remain high for the next 6 hours, along the ridges,
due to runoff before drastically falling.

As high pressure builds from the west, low-level clouds will
gradually diminish in coverage during the late afternoon and
evening time period today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Into mid-week, the 500mb pattern trends more towards a western
trough and an eastern ridge, which will actually push
temperatures close to 15 degrees above normal Tuesday. A low
passing to the north will accelerate gradient low-level flow
Tuesday, though LREF keeps a 90% chance of SBCAPE >500, and a
50% chance of values near 0. SPC has hoisted a Day-3 Marginal
Risk in north central PA for now where shear is maximized (near
40kts), with damaging wind as the primary threat.

Better rain chances arrive into Wednesday as a weak shortwave
moves through, with QPF totals anywhere from a light
accumulation to 0.50" (NBM 25th-90th), should the shortwave
materialize.

The big question then becomes what will happen with a late-week
system, of which, ensembles are still highly uncertain. The main
driver of uncertainty is the timing and placement of a digging
eastern tough. In scenario 1, the trough digs east of the area
sometime Thursday thru Saturday. In this scenario, the area
would be warmer than ensemble means and less unsettled. In
scenario 2, the trough barrels down directly into the area with
a strong cold front (favored Friday into Saturday) and
potentially bring some rain, winds (approaching advisory
criteria, at minimum), and even lake- enhanced snow/rain shower
potential into Saturday. In scenario 3, the trough may drop to
into the Midwest sometime Friday/Saturday with rain ahead of it,
and bring a longer period of cool and windy conditions as the
upper low struggles to rejoin the flow into next weekend. If
truly maximized, scenario 2 would be the most impactful due to
wind gusts risks and lake effect snow potential (2-10%
probability for locations to see >= 3" of snow).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the wake of the tropical disturbance, residual boundary-layer
moisture has supported widespread status across the region, with
MVFR to IFR cigs currently observed at terminals. Winds are
gradually shifting from north to northwest.

As high pressure builds eastward over the next 12 hours, cigs
are expected to gradually improve to VFR during the late
afternoon, primarily between 18Z and 22Z. Winds will also shift
to west during this period.

High-resolution models indicate fog development early Tuesday
morning for areas north of PIT, mainly for the BVI, FKL, and DUJ
terminals.

Outlook...

Stray showers may pass near FKL/DUJ with an advancing cold front
late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

Gusty winds are possible Friday as a strong low moves across the
Great Lakes. Gusts ranging from 30 to 40 knots are possible
with some of the stronger low scenarios. The current potential
for 30kt gusts on Friday at KPIT is 80%, 40% chance of gusting
to 40kts.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Milcarek
AVIATION...Hefferan