063
FXUS61 KPBZ 241806
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
106 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists into the evening. Rain chances return
tomorrow morning and continue into Wednesday. A frontal passage
Wednesday could bring gusty showers. Cold temperatures, blustery
conditions, and lake-effect snow (mainly north of US-422) can
be expected Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet today
- Rain returns Tuesday
---------------------------------------------------------------

The day will remain quiet and dry under high pressure. Upper-and mid-
level clouds will continue to gradually spread from the west ahead
of an approaching disturbance. High temperatures will trend a few
degrees above average. Tonight, conditions will remain dry with
overcast skies keeping overnight low temperatures about 5 degrees
above normal.

An open-wave trough over the Great Plains will move east-northeast,
bringing in warm, moist air just before daybreak Tuesday.
Probabilities of measurable rain >80% will be between 6am and 8am in
eastern Ohio and between 7am and 9am in western Pennsylvania. Steady
rain is likely through early to mid-afternoon, supported by a deep
moisture profile with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values near 1.00
inches. As a dry slot approaches from the southwest (western
Kentucky and Tennessee), rain coverage should become more scattered
from mid-afternoon into the late evening.

By the evening, rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.30 to
0.60 inches for most locations, with amounts up to 0.80 inches
possible in eastern Ohio. For most of eastern Ohio, there is a less
than 15% chance of observing more than 1 inch of rain, however,
there is localize areas in southeastern Ohio with a 40%-60% of
exceeding an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showery and mild Wednesday night
- Gusty showers possible Wednesday afternoon with a cold front
----------------------------------------------------------------

During this period, a deepening 500mb low is forecast to swing
from the Upper Midwest into the central Great Lakes, which will
push a trough closer to the Upper Ohio Valley by 00Z Thursday.
Scattered to numerous light showers will continue Tuesday night
and into Wednesday morning in continued moist southwest flow
ahead of the main frontal passage, with dry mid-level air
limiting rain potential somewhat. Low temperatures will be
quite mild overnight, with some locations not dropping below 50
degrees.

Continued warm advection into Wednesday morning should allow for
some shallow instability to develop, although chances of
exceeding 100 J/kg of surface-based CAPE remain mostly under 40
percent area-wide. Also, mixing will have trouble reaching the
level of -10C, so lightning chances are quite low. Nevertheless,
a band of gusty showers accompanying the front is still suggested
by model guidance, and the CAPE profiles are still sufficiently
tall to reach into 40-50 knots of flow in the 850-700mb layer.
If this does occur, surface gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are possible
with the heavier showers. Timing looks to be around the late
morning to the mid-afternoon hours, with the front likely east
of our region by sunset. Cold advection commences behind the
boundary, with subzero 850mb temperatures rapidly overspreading
the region. Depending on how quickly the boundary layer can
cool, the change to snow may begin to occur by the end of this
period in post-frontal showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold through Saturday; blustery Thanksgiving and Friday
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thanksgiving into Friday
- Moderating temperatures Sunday/Monday with precipitation
  chances

-------------------------------------------------------------------

During Wednesday night, low-level flow behind the front is
largely out of a WSW direction, which will delay the onset of
lake influence in our forecast region. Most snow shower activity
should be confined to areas north of I-80 through Thanksgiving
morning, and be scattered at best. The main impact initially
will be the cold conditions, as temperatures in the mid and
upper 20s combine with the gusty wind to create wind chill
values in the teens.

As surface low pressure rides further northeast into Canada, low-
level flow will begin to veer a bit more towards the northwest
on Thanksgiving. This should allow lake-effect snow showers to
become more prevalent into the forecast area. Long-range
probabilities suggest most accumulation of note will remain
north of US-422. Northern portions of Mercer, Venango, and
Forest Counties will lie closer to the most persistent banding,
and have some potential for several inches of accumulation.
Lake-effect snow headlines may be necessary as the event
approaches, with impacts persisting into Friday. For the rest of
the region, blustery and cold conditions should continue, with
little more than flurries or isolated snow showers at most.

Strengthening high pressure moving in from the west will likely
weaken flow and reduce lake-effect snow chances Friday night
into Saturday morning. Temperatures will continue to run around
10 degrees below normal both Friday night and Saturday, but wind
chill values should ease with slackening wind.

Thereafter, ensembles suggest that broad southwest flow returns
to the region for Sunday and Monday with another moisture
increases. Temperatures may return to more normal levels by the
first of December. Resultant precipitation type will depend on
timing, but a snow-to-rain scenario is within the realm of
possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected today as high pressure moves across the Upper Ohio
Valley region. Light south-southeast wind during the day with
increasing high level clouds in warm advection ahead of a shortwave
trough approaching from the central CONUS. By early tomorrow
morning, rain and MVFR conditions are forecast to start in eastern
Ohio and move eastward throughout the morning.

By mid-day, most locations will see ceilings drop to IFR as the rain
continues and the warm front lifts north across the region.

Outlook...
Rain and MVFR restrictions are likely late Tuesday night
into Wednesday with a crossing cold front. Gusty westerly winds will
follow and continue through Friday.

Patchy cig restrictions and scattered snow showers are expected
Thursday into Friday with subsequent upper troughing and cold W-NW
flow. Vsby restrictions in snow are also possible at FKL and DUJ due
to the potential for lake effect banding. Currently, there is not
high confidence in how far south the banding could setup.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL/Lupo
NEAR TERM...Lupo
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Lupo