Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
101 FXUS61 KPBZ 021139 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 639 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor adjustments for patchy light rain and sprinkles across eastern Ohio and northwest PA through tonight. There is a slightly later arrival time of mid week rain as well. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light rain/sprinkles are possible mainly across Ohio and northwest PA this morning and again tonight, otherwise mainly dry and warm through early Wednesday 2) Rain returns late Wednesday and Thursday, with an unsettled pattern through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly mid and high clouds will continue to stream across the region today ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This trough is progged to weaken through the day, with decreasing ascent as it moves eastward. Expect some chance for light rain or sprinkles this morning mainly across Ohio, especially near and west of I-77. Dry low level air in place should limit the potential for measurable rainfall. The weakening trough should exit the region this afternoon. A weak surface warm front is progged to lift NE across the area tonight, though a lack of moisture and ascent should limit rain chances to slight, mainly across OH and NW PA. Ridging, ahead of a deepening central CONUS trough, is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Rising 500 mb heights and southerly flow should result in high temperatures from 15 to 20 degrees above average both days. KEY MESSAGE 2... The central CONUS trough is expected to advance eastward, approaching the Upper Ohio Valley region late Wednesday. Rain chances increase later in the day, peaking Wednesday night into Thursday as the trough crosses, along with a surface occluded front. Limited elevated instability is progged with the surface occlusion, with a rumble of thunder possible. An unsettled pattern is then expected from late week into the weekend, as model ensembles indicate a persistent broad upper trough across the Great Lakes-NE CONUS region. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast into at least the first part of the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours. Mid and upper level clouds will accompany a weakening shortwave trough across the region. Some light, likely non-restrictive rain or sprinkles are possible at ZZV this morning, before the trough shifts east and weakens. This will be followed by a weak warm front, which will lift across the region tonight. Rain potential is low with this front due to a lack of deep moisture, but ceilings could drop into the 4-5 thousand foot range due to an increase in stratocumulus. Outlook... VFR is expected through under a ridge of high pressure until an approaching surface front returns rain chances late Wednesday and Thursday. Subsequent upper troughing could continue restriction and rain chances into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...CL