616
FXUS61 KPBZ 080815
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
415 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, cooler conditions can be expected today and into the
upcoming weekend after showers exit east of the ridges this
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers exit east early this morning
- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Surface analysis shows the crossing cold front currently south
and east of PGH and is progged to be largely east of the ridges
by daybreak. Precipitation rates have remained relatively low,
so there is a minimal flood risk. Subsidence should erode
stratocu cloud coverage from west to east through the first
half the morning as surface high pressure moves in behind the
front. An increased pressure gradient today will be sufficient
for gusts between 20mph and 25mph across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Overnight lows may result in morning frost or freezing
  conditions
----------------------------------------------------------------

Winds will lessen this evening as surface winds decouple and the
pressure gradient weakens as the high center nears from
northwest of the local area. This along with limited cloud
coverage will allow for efficient radiational cooling into
Thursday morning, and a Frost Advisory has been issued for
location north and east of Pittsburgh, mostly north of route
422.

Dry and cooler temperatures continue Thursday as the mentioned
high continues to transition east and large scale subsidence
limits cloud development. Even though there will be a light
downslope (warming) easterly wind Thursday night/Friday morning
morning, low temperatures are forecast to remain below normal.
Latest guidance shows 50-75% chance of hitting 32F or lower
north of route 422 (roughly), and a 20-30% chance of 32F or
farther to the south into SW PA and the ridges of northern WV.
A Freeze Watch has been issued for the same areas mentioned
above, and areas to the south could potentially need a Frost
Advisory as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather favored through the weekend.
- Pattern variability exists at the start of next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is high confidence in strong surface high pressure positioning
over the New England Friday into the weekend as the upper Ohio River
Valley sits underneath a weak, saggy trough. This ridge will promote
dry weather and gradual warming to about 5 degrees above the daily
average through the period.

At the start of next week, an upper level trough is forecast to
approach the region. Presently, there is a high level of uncertainty
with the strength of the trough. This has a chance of bringing a
chance of rain later in the week for areas north of Pittsburgh.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR and rain showers will continue through early this morning
with a crossing cold front. Rain will end from NW to SE after
FROPA, with IFR cigs lingering a couple of hours behind the
front with low level moisture in place. Improvement through
MVFR to VFR is expected in dry advection behind the front, with
clouds scattering out by mid to late morning. A scattered
diurnal cumulus/stratocu layer should persist until around
sunset, as high pressure builds in.

A tightening pressure gradient and mixing behind the front will
result in NW wind gusts to around 20 kt later this morning
through the afternoon. Wind should subside after sunset as the
pressure gradient begins to relax.

.OUTLOOK...
Other than early morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Saturday under high pressure. A low potential for
restrictions returns Saturday night and Sunday with a crossing
upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-073>078.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ510>514.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88/Lupo
AVIATION...WM