306
FXUS61 KPBZ 160052
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
852 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Localized flooding is possible into Monday; Flood Watch
extended to 10pm tomorrow. Daytime highs return to above normal
by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heavy rain threat decreases late tonight
- Locally heavy rain may result in flash flooding Monday
  afternoon/evening, Flood Watch in effect through 10pm tomorrow
---------------------------------------------------------------

A lingering stationary boundary, combined with an unusually
warm and moist atmosphere and slow-moving storms, has led to
heavy rainfall across the region late this evening. Areal Flood
Warnings remain in effect as water slowly recedes. Radar
reflectivity shows a diminishing rain threat through midnight,
and no additional Flash Flood Warnings are anticipated late
tonight into early Monday morning.

Above-average low temperatures are expected Monday morning, with
isolated fog possible in the Laurel Highlands and along the
West Virginia ridges.

The threat for excessive rainfall and potential flooding
continues into Monday afternoon and evening. Due to recent heavy
rainfall south of Butler and additional storms expected Monday,
the Flood Watch has been extended and is now in effect through
10pm Monday.

Monday`s environment will continue to support elevated
precipitable water values (1.6 to 1.9), weak surface
instability, and a deep warm cloud layer ranging from 11,000 to
13,000ft. As with today, any storms that develop could produce
heavy rainfall. The probability of rainfall rates reaching to
1-2 inches per hour are above normal, ranging from 20-40%. The
highest rainfall potential is expected between 12pm to 10pm. The
threat from damaging winds are very low given weak flow aloft
and absence of dry air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Similar flash flood chances continue into Tuesday, mainly
  south of Pittsburgh.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The chance for showers will persist overnight, however,
without the daytime heating, they will likely be lighter.

A similar environment is expected to set-up on Tuesday keeping
the chance for flash flooding in play with a Slight Risk Outlook
for excessive rainfall. Rainfall is expected to lighten Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A mid-week warmup will be followed by increasing late-week  severe
potential.
- Weekend is likely to be dry and hot.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By Wednesday, there is some indication of a return to quasi-zonal
flow to even weak ridging, with NBM highs back into the mid to upper
80s. On Thursday, a surface low (preceding an upper level
trough), is expected to move through the area bringing the
chance for severe weather. We will be keeping an eye on severe
potential in the transition from heat to weak troughing, with
CIPS and CSU machine learning showing increasing probabilities
into Thursday and Friday. Into days 7 and beyond, the strength
and progressiveness of this trough will determine just how long
it takes to warm back up into what could potentially be another
ridging pattern with heat returning.

By Saturday, a ridge is likely to move into the area, bringing dry
weather and warm temperatures. Temperatures are expected to rise
into the mid to upper 80s. The ridge is expected to remain
stationary at least through Monday keeping temperatures well above
normal into the upper 80s and low 90s

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers are lightening up in coverage and intensity as daytime
heating begins to wane. A stationary boundary across SE OH and W PA
will continue at least -SHRA or VCSH for ZZV, HLG, PIT and AGC into
the evening hours before these subside over the next several hours.
With weakening showers and loss of some moisture near the SFC CIGs
have improved some and are patchy VFR/MVFR across the region.

The stagnant and moist environment is likely to remain fairly
unchanged overnight and BR is expected to be prevalent within IFR
CIGs overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms return along the stationary boundary
tomorrow and can continue restrictions across the region.

Outlook... Periodic restrictions are expected through Thursday as
disturbances track along the stalled frontal boundary across the
Upper Ohio Valley region. Late night/early morning stratus and fog
is likely, along with showers and thunderstorms peaking in the
afternoon and early evening. More organized showers/storms are
expected with a Thursday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for PAZ021-029-031-073>076.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OHZ049-050-058-059-068-
     069.
WV...Flood Watch through Monday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Lupo
LONG TERM...Milcarek/Lupo
AVIATION...Frazier/AK