495
FXUS61 KPBZ 231732
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1232 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into Monday evening. Rain
chances and mild temperatures arrive Tuesday ahead of Great
Lakes low pressure. A cold frontal passage occurs by Wednesday
night, bringing well-below normal temperatures and gusty wind.
Snow shower chances increase Thanksgiving and Friday, mainly
north of Pittsburgh.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty wind today... Wind Advisory for Eastern Tucker County
- Dry weather with clouds clearing
---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will build from the west through the day today
returning dry weather. The pressure gradient will tighten
between it and a wake surface trough sliding just to our north
and east, and weak low level cold advection is reinforcing
lapse rates with mixing into a 30-35 knot low level jet. Both
the gradient and mixing will contribute to a gusty day today
with probability for >30 mph gusts ranging from 20-40% in
eastern Ohio to 70-90+% for the rest of the area. The higher
terrain is likely to see 30-40 mph gusts, and both HREF and NBM
probability for >46 mph gusts (wind advisory criteria) is >80%
in Eastern Tucker County. For that reason, have pulled the
trigger on a Wind Advisory there through 5PM. Elsewhere, gusts
will remain below advisory criteria.

Aside from the wind, more sun than clouds will support
temperatures to near seasonal norms. Can`t rule out a few very
light showers sliding through our far northeast zones early this
afternoon, but increasing subsidence from the surface high
should suppress most PoP chance in our area today, and HREF
agrees with a <20% chance of measurable QPF only driven that
high by a more aggressive NAM3k. Gusts will ease after sunset as
diurnal heating diminishes. Overnight low temperatures will
trend near to slightly below average with relaxing wind and
mostly clear skies. Some river valley fog is possible overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Milder Monday with increasing clouds
- Rain returns by Tuesday morning, with wetting rain areawide during
  the day
----------------------------------------------------------------

A crossing mid-level ridge axis will continue to provide dry weather
Monday. The sky will be mostly clear early, but return flow behind
departing high pressure should push mid and upper clouds into the
region through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly
seasonable, adding 2 or 3 degrees to today`s highs in spots.

The next mid-level shortwave, over the central Plains Monday
morning, is forecast to ride northeast into the Middle Ohio Valley
by Tuesday afternoon, dampening as it does so. A surface low
reflection forms in the lee of the Rockies tomorrow and should track
into the Upper Midwest by 00Z Wednesday. An approaching warm front
and right entrance region jet dynamics provide the support for lift.
Combined with an moistening air mass with precipitable water
values climbing towards one inch, this will provide increasing
rain chances after 06Z Tuesday, with widespread rain coverage
developing after sunrise. Most locations are expected to receive
a wetting rainfall, with eastern Ohio having the best chance of
exceeding a half-inch (40 to 50 percent chance). Temperatures
will rise to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal both Monday
night and Tuesday in this pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Diminishing rain chances into Wednesday
- Gusty shower potential Wednesday afternoon
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Increasing mid-level dry air entrainment should lessen rain coverage
and intensity Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Areas east of
Pittsburgh have better chances of adding an additional tenth of an
inch or so of rain as compared to locations like eastern Ohio.
Temperatures remain mild, with some locations likely not getting
below 50 degrees Tuesday night.

A surface cold front should pass across the Upper Ohio Valley
Wednesday afternoon or evening, while the surface low is in the
vicinity of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Timing remains a bit
uncertain, depending partially on the progression of the larger
500mb trough across the Great Lakes. A line of gusty showers may
accompany the front as steepening low-level lapse rates provide both
some modest instability and a path for a 30-40 knots low-level
jet to mix down.

Although frontal timing is questionable, there is high confidence in
temperatures crashing to well below-normal behind it,
particularly for Thanksgiving and Friday. With lingering
blustery conditions, wind chill values in the teens may
accompany actual temperatures in the 20s Thursday night.

Any remaining showers are forecast to change to snow by Thanksgiving
morning, with lake-effect activity likely developing and continuing
into at least Friday. At this distance, low-level wind still appears
to have more of a westerly direction than northwest, which would
suggest lower potential for impactful snow across most of the
forecast areas.  However, long-range probabilities do continue to
highlight portions of Mercer, Venango, and Forest Counties as
having a bit better potential for more persistent banded
activity, and it is here where some sort of winter headline may
eventually be needed.

Most guidance pushes the trough east of the region by Friday
evening, leading to a decrease of lake-effect activity. Details
become murkier next weekend, but rising heights and a renewed push
of moisture may lead to more widespread precipitation and moderating
temperature by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry air intrusion has eroded the stratus deck from this morning and
given way to afternoon stratocu development as weak low level cold
advection post-FROPA steepens lapse rates. Cigs should be mainly VFR
for all sites save FKL/DUJ/MGW where enough moisture will still
support some BKN MVFR decks for a couple hours after 18z when mixing
should then sufficiently raise cigs and return VFR areawide.

A tighter pressure gradient in the wake of the boundary, and mixing
into a 30-35 knot low level jet, will result in WSW wind gusts to
around 20-25 knots through the afternoon. Wind should subside this
evening under the building high as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Some river valley fog is possible tonight and both HREF and NBM
suggest some restrictions impacting ZZV/MGW with slightly higher dew
points and calmer wind there, so have introduced a TEMPO group there
but confidence in impacts to the terminals is medium.

Outlook...
Restrictions and rain returns Tuesday with a warm front,
continuing Wednesday with a crossing cold front. Gusty W wind,
patchy cig restrictions, and scattered snow showers are
possible Thu in cold advection and a crossing upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB/CL
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MLB