Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
500 FXUS61 KPBZ 041633 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1133 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast. The probability of hazardous weather over the next 7 days is considered very low. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain and warm temperatures expected today 2) Cooler pattern returns over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Light to moderate rain is currently being observed across central Ohio this morning and will gradually eastward ahead of a cold front. Scattered to widespread rainfall is expected across the region after dark into early Thursday morning. Rainfall totals will generally range from a quarter of an inch to just shy of inch. Probabilities of localized higher amounts between 0.50 to 0.75 inches remain elevated (50-65%) across eastern Ohio, mainly near Zanesville and Coshocton. Despite these higher amounts, the overall threat for flooding remains very low. Rain chances diminish toward daybreak Thursday as mid and upper-level dry air advances into the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... A deep upper-level low is expected to reach the Great Lakes region Friday. This low should continue eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region through Saturday. Temperatures will likely return to near seasonable levels as 850mb temperatures drop below freezing. However, the probability of snow into next week is considered very low. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid and upper clouds will continue to increase this morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and surface cold front. The front should slowly cross the region between late evening and Thursday morning. Rain will overspread the region this afternoon and evening ahead of the front, with ceilings and visibilities falling into the MVFR category from west to east. Rain and MVFR/patchy IFR restrictions are likely to continue overnight with the crossing front, with MVFR ceilings hanging on even as the rain starts to end towards sunrise. Outlook... Restrictions should continue into early Thursday as the front completes its passage. After some improvement later Thursday into Friday, restriction and rain potential returns later Friday through Saturday with a crossing upper trough. Cold NW flow behind the trough could maintain ceiling restrictions into Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...CL