080
FXUS61 KPBZ 021109
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
709 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Models are perhaps a bit more confident (80%) at weak troughing
and precipitation chances at some point this weekend, but
timing of rain/storms remains uncertain and tied to trough
arrival time uncertainties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry through the work-week with a warming trend. Rain chances
return over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
While there may be perhaps a shower or two developing on a mid-
level shortwave passage this morning in higher terrain, most
will remain dry. Today will spell the last day of an eastern
troughing pattern, before the mid-level low drops south and
closes and/or departs. Irrespective, ridging overtop will allow
temperatures to climb each day this week with high confidence in
dry weather.

The NBM transition-season warm bias allowed knocking high
temperatures down a degree to two from deterministic highs, to
be more aligned with un-bias-corrected models. These generally
show low-to-mid 70s today, upper-70s to low-80s Wednesday, then
generally low-to-mid 80s by Friday with heights between 582dm to
588dm. Minor heat risk is forecast for most by the end of the
week (impacts to those particularly sensitive to heat).

Ensembles increasingly favor some sort of ridge breakdown
Saturday in to Sunday (80% chance) with an infringing eastern
trough. Should this occur, timing is uncertain, with some having
rain, cloud, and comparatively cooler temps (upper-70s to
low-80s) arrive by Saturday, and others maintaining warm and
dry conditions Saturday (mid-80s) with rain and cooler
conditions arriving Sunday. All in all, perhaps the most likely
day for the trough passage would be Sunday at this point, but
storms are certainly possible Saturday. And of course, there
still a 20% chance or no breakdown at all which would support
continued heat and predominantly dry conditions. So continued
monitoring is necessary until models capture the amplitude/presence
of central CONUS ridge by late-week.

Most NCAR ML Convective Hazard Forecasts and CIPS generally show
a low-end risk for severe weather Saturday into Sunday in the
event that the weak trough passage does materialize. However,
chances of exceeding 1" or rain are generally less than 20%
areawide for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will
generally remain less than 10kts and between north and east
through the period. Fair weather cumulus above 5kft expected to
develop through the day and dissipate overnight. An isolated
daytime gust of 15kt to 20kt could not be ruled out, along with
a 10% chance of a morning rain shower at MGW, though both of
these were not noted in the TAFs given low probability.

Outlook...
High probability for an extended period of VFR through Friday.
Restriction chances increase into the weekend, but forecast
confidence remains low.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Milcarek
AVIATION...Rackley/Milcarek