Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
340 FXUS61 KPBZ 021749 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1249 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes accompany this latest forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Area temperature rises nearly 20 degrees above normal Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the incoming cold front. 2) Rain returns late Wednesday and Thursday, with an unsettled pattern through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry sub-700mb air has continued to ensure any lift resulting in precipitation formation only translates to isolated, brief sprinkles for portions of eastern OH through northwest PA today/tonight. Strengthening warm, moist advection in southwest flow plus height rises aloft results in high temperatures approaching 20 degrees above the daily averages Tuesday/Wednesday. Though no records are forecasted to be broken, there are scenarios where enough cloud cover limiting nocturnal cooling could result in a few instances of near to record high minimum temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... Models have fairly high consistency in lifting an initially closed upper low and its surface low center NW of the region Wednesday into Thursday morning, with the surface low becoming occluded near central MI. The result is broad ascent within WSW flow combining with weakening surface convergence along the cold front to produce swaths of rain showers traversing the regional with a low probability for lightning (less than 15%). Dry advection plus dry slotting aloft quickly ends rain chances post-frontal Thursday while slowly dropping temperature (but remaining above normal) and waiting for the next trough axis to cross with marginal precipitation chances Friday/Saturday. Mean ensemble model accumulations for Wednesday/Thursday range between 0.25" to 1" that preclude flooding concerns. Lower QPF scenarios exist where forcing splits between a northern/southern embedded jet that dampens lift to keep rain on the lighter side. Higher end QPF scenarios (which could touch 2") combine a better positioned jet with a slimmer of buoyancy to better maximize the 95th percentile PWAT values in the region for more efficient rains. Even these high- end scenarios is unlikely to result in flooding; the most likely impact is nuisance flooding aided by clogged storm drains from recent leaf loss. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Better moisture over portions of eastern Ohio has allowed an MVFR ceiling to develop at ZZV. The departure of a shortwave and increased warm advection should allow the ceiling to rise back to VFR here by the evening. At other sites, scattered to broken high-based stratocumulus, generally at 5 to 7 thousand feet, can be expected to develop this afternoon and linger into the evening as a weak warm front approaches and crosses. South/southeast wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are expected west of PIT this afternoon, with terminals to the east experiencing lighter wind. Clouds are forecast to decrease late tonight and towards sunrise behind the warm front as mid-level ridging takes hold. Light southerly wind will dominate through the afternoon, along with VFR conditions. Outlook... VFR is expected through under a ridge of high pressure until an approaching surface front returns rain chances late Wednesday and Thursday. Subsequent upper troughing could continue restriction and rain chances into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...CL