681
FXUS61 KPBZ 082234
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
634 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been added for Monday.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with an active weather
pattern in place through much of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of showers/storms are possible this
evening/overnight but should be more scattered in nature. These
storms could but present a slightly higher wind gust potential.

2) After a break on Sunday, daily shower and thunderstorm chances
return Monday and remain in the forecast through at least Thursday
with both the potential for strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are attempting to develop
along a nominal surface dewpoint gradient and marginal upper
support as of 630pm, stretching from central OH into northwest
PA. Notable mid-level dry air seen via Satellite and ACARS
soundings have made storm up growth more of a slog. However,
~25kts effective shear with mlCAPE values above 2000 J/kg are
allowing a few more to become organized, especially as their
initial updrafts moisten the near-storm air, and offering
greater risks for damaging winds with above 1000 J/kg DCAPE
available areawide.

For the rest of the evening, damaging wind is likely to be the
primary risk as storms progress east, especially if stronger
cold pools develop to aide in storm clustering. Flash flooding
is not likely due to lower rainfall rates (PWAT is down and
slowly falling) than prior days` values while forward storm
motion of 25 mph should limit rain duration at a given location.
If any flooding occurs, it will be in areas with poor drainage
or previously experiencing flooding that sees a storm that
better maximizes rainfall rates.

Both threats should lower after 10pm but may not completely end
as elevated buoyancy and shortwave movement maintains varying
storm chances before exiting southeast of the region by early
Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Surface and shortwave ridging provide for a brief reprieve from
the daily rounds of storms on Sunday.

Very broad troughing will remain in place until at least Wednesday
before a stronger shortwave deepens the trough over the Great Lakes.
With prevailing W-NW flow and disturbances passing through the upper
pattern, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
with the potential for more organized convective complexes as hinted
to in some of the guidance. Precipitable water values remain above-
normal in a climatological sense through this period, and as several
areas already well saturated, will generally take less
precipitation to pose a flood risk. As such, WPC does have
portions of the upper Ohio in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall Monday- Wednesday. Think it could be very
well be possible a Flood Watch is issued at some point during
this time frame but there remains some run to run spatial
inconsistency, which will be better resolved in the 12-24 hour
time scale as the day priors convection may shift where the
threat is the next day.

In addition to the flood threat, severe weather chances show an
uptick as well, particularly earlier in the week according to the
long-range machine-learning convective guidance. This makes sense,
as this period shows the best juxtaposition of instability, moderate
deep-layer shear, and decent low-level flow. Some uncertainty
remains among the various ensemble members that will be better
resolved in time.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR favored for the majority of the TAF period with isolated to
locally scattered thunderstorms possible through early Sunday
morning ahead of a nominal surface boundary. The environment
remains conducive to thunderstorm development outside of
excessive dry air aloft, but limited forcing likely will keep
storm coverage low and make terminal impacts more uncertain.
Outside of FKL/DUJ, where storms are closer to impact, keep
thunderstorm chances to PROB30 groups with updated timing based
on where storms initiated this afternoon.

Pending early morning clearing, there is potential for a short
period of IFR cigs/vsbys in lower stratus/fog but confidence in
low in timing and coverage of such restrictions. Any that do
develop will mix out by 15z as diurnal heating scatters out
residual clouds.

Outlook...
Active weather returns Monday through the later half of the week
with varying rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Timing of
storms for a given day is likely to be of lower confidence and
dependent on upstream storm progression. Most restrictions
during this period will be tied to storm activity and/or morning
fog/stratus resultant of rain plus overnight clearing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...34
AVIATION...Frazier