Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
955 FXUS61 KPBZ 291741 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is high that hot and humid conditions return Monday through Wednesday. Continuing to monitor the potential for severe weather mid-week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions Monday through Wednesday 2) Severe weather potential Wednesday into Thursday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As a large-scale trough axis develops across the West Coast over the next 48hrs, ridging will strengthen across the Great Lakes and East Coast, ushering hot and humid conditions back into the region. The probability of temperatures reaching the upper-80s and low-90s is elevated, exceeding 70% early this week, which will contribute to an increased heat risk. Several climate sites may tie, come within a few degrees of, or break record warm minimum temperatures Monday through Wednesday. Long-range models indicated that the ridge will weaken late week and into the holiday weekend, reducing the probability of hot conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2... As the aforementioned ridge begins to break down (mentioned in Key Message 1), the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall will increase across parts of the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The area of greatest interest currently appears to be north of Pittsburgh, where the northern extent of the ridge axis will interact with a passing trough over Canada. This area is expected to have the best potential for favorable strong vertical wind shear and instability, supported by the increasing warm, moist southwest flow early in the week. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a 15% probability of severe storms Wednesday into Thursday for northern Pennsylvania. Should the ridge axis sag farther south towards I-80, the risk area for severe storms could expand to include a larger portion of our region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period as surface high pressure tracks east across the region. Increasing high clouds are expected with warm advection aloft. Clouds now expected to remain scattered overnight which will limit any radiational cooling. This will likely inhibit any river valley fog development even though will be calm wind tonight. Tomorrow, light southwesterly wind and scattered ceilings expected through the day. Shower and thunderstorm chances are possible mainly for FKL and DUJ tomorrow night into Monday as a shortwave trough moves across the northern periphery of the ridge. Restrictions are possible with the precipitation. Outlook... VFR is expected for much of the area through Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase by late Wednesday as the ridge begins to break down, and a shortwave trough approaches. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...Lupo