869
FXUS61 KPBZ 251135
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
635 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is expected today as a warm front lifts north across the
area. Rain chances continue Wednesday as a cold front crosses.
Much colder air will move across the region for Thanksgiving
through the end of the week, along with snow shower chances.
Lake enhanced snow is expected along and north of Interstate 80
Thanksgiving and Friday, with scattered snow showers at times
elsewhere.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain and warmer temperatures return
---------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave trough will track from the Midwest to the Upper
Ohio Valley region today. At the same time, a surface low will
deepen across the Upper Midwest, as it`s associated warm front
lifts north across the region. Increasing moisture and ascent
in SW flow aloft will result in rain overspreading the region
today. The Upper Ohio Valley region will also be under the
right entrance region of an upper jet, and on the leading edge
of a low level jet, both of which should also enhance ascent.

Wind aloft will increase, though the warm advection pattern
should keep at least a weak inversion in place at the surface,
keeping the wind from mixing down. High temperatures are
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average under the warm
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain tapering off Wednesday
- Gusty wind Wednesday and Thursday
- Falling temperatures Wednesday, colder Thursday
- Snow showers Wednesday night through Thursday night N of I 70
- Lake enhanced snow along/north of I 80 Thursday and Thursday night

----------------------------------------------------------------

Widespread rain should become patchy in coverage tonight as the
initial shortwave and surface warm front exits to the NE. A
deepening shortwave trough is progged to be located across the
Upper Midwest this evening, as the surface low continues to
strengthen.

The trough will continue to approach Wednesday, as the low
tracks across the Upper Great Lakes, pulling a cold front
across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A band of rain/showers is
expected with the front, which should cross the area from W-E
during the morning/early afternoon. Total QPF is expected to
range from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. A tightening pressure gradient,
and steepening lapse rates in cold advection, should lead to
gusty winds after FROPA, continuing into Thursday. Gusts from
30-40mph are likely for much of the area. Wind gusts could
approach advisory levels (above 45mph) across the ridges, with
NBM showing the highest probability of this occurrence across
the higher terrain of eastern Tucker county WV.

The upper trough axis is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley
region Wednesday night, and any rain showers will change to
snow showers from late Wednesday into Wednesday night under
strong cold advection. Model soundings indicate a lack of
saturation in the dendritic layer keeping snow shower intensity
low.

The focus for snow showers is expected to be north of PIT on
Thanksgiving, as a vort max rotates through the main upper
trough. There could also be some lake enhancement north of I-80
as the boundary layer flow begins to veer from SW to WSW,
though the more favorable area for lake enhancement is just
north of the forecast area.

The boundary layer flow is expected to veer more to the W or
WNW Thursday night, as another shortwave/vort max rotates
through the main trough. Scattered snow showers are expected
with this trough across much of the region, with more numerous
lake enhanced snow showers near and north of I-80. A Winter
Weather Advisory is likely to be issued in the future as
mesoscale features become more resolved in numerical guidance.
Current NBM probabilities for advisory level snow range from
50-70 percent across the tier of counties north of I-80, and will
continue to include this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Much colder temperatures are expected by Wednesday night,
continuing through Thursday night, with readings 10 to 15
degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow showers gradually taper off from S-N Friday
- Temperatures moderate over the weekend through early next
  week
- Unsettled weather continues

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate the upper trough will begin to shift
eastward on Friday, with boundary layer winds gradually backing
to the SW by Friday night. Snow showers should gradually
decrease through the day from S-N, though lingering lake
enhancement could bring additional snow accumulations mainly
north of I-80.

Another shortwave trough is expected to rapidly track from the
Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region late Saturday into
Sunday, with rain and snow chances returning. Another trough in
the amplified pattern aloft is expected to approach the region
Monday, with mainly rain chances, though some snow is possible
at the precip onset. Temperatures are expected to gradually
moderate through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level shortwave passage will aide in overspreading of rain
and restrictions through the day. Initial rain onset should see
VFR conditions at area terminals due to lingering low-level dry
air. Within an hour or two of onset, the combination of warm
frontal approach and top- down moistening is highly likely to
foster restriction degradation towards IFR conditions,
potentially first via visibility then ceiling. Hi-res guidance
suggests there could be a window of MVFR to VFR improvements
between 17z-22z from southeast of KPIT near MGW/AGC/LBE due to
better mixing/lift in the warm sector after the warm frontal
passage; however, confidence in timing/duration is too low for
additional TAF lines at this time.

Though the initial shortwave will exit by 00z, broad ascent is
expected to continue in moist, southwest flow ahead of a
deepening western Great Lakes trough. A transition to more
scattered showers and widespread IFR conditions is favored
during this time period. Approach of the dry slot and cold front
Wednesday morning may aid in cig improvements near dawn/12z.


Outlook...
The approach and passage of a notable cold front between 13z-20z
Wednesday will increase area wind and generate a line of gusty
showers. Modeling suggests a near 80% probability of 25-30kt
winds both along and post-frontal passage (veering westerly
afterward) but limited chances for gusts to exceed 35kts. Brief
VFR conditions may be see near the frontal boundary due to
increased lift before strong cold advection favors MVFR
stratocu with any lingering showers turning to snow.

Most terminals will trend to VFR by Wednesday night with
increasing subsidence and strong dry advection as upper
troughing positions north of the region. Any lingering impacts
will be limited to FKL/DUJ, which may see increasing lake effect
snow chances later in the week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Frazier