248
FXUS61 KPBZ 282342
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop southeast through the area this
afternoon/evening and into the overnight with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather will then be the case
Friday through the weekend. Cooler temperatures will be in place
through the weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation chances return this afternoon/evening
- Rainfall amounts will be light
- Dry conditions to overcome
---------------------------------------------------------------

The prefrontal conditions today will feature dry conditions as
the dew point depressions are around 20 degrees in some
instances and even some 30 degree differences. The amount of dry
air in place with a somewhat moisture starved front moving
through might only add up to a few instances of measurable
rainfall. Temperatures are below normal and will be around 5
degrees below normal for highs this afternoon. Its reasonable to
believe that some locations over the north in Mercer and
Venango will at least measurable. In fact, the NBM probs give
above 60% for 0.01 amounts north of Allegheny County.

The showers and any thunderstorms will begin to dissipate
overnight with the bulk of the rain chances being confined to
the areas north of I-80. Low temperatures tonight will be well
under normal values for this time of year. Areas that received
rainfall may deal with a bit more of a fog potential overnight
but this will depend if some areas clear out behind the front.
The possibility of winds being a little elevated will nix the
fog potential as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain early Friday morning
- Cool temperatures continue
- Below average temperatures expected Saturday
----------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will resume behind the cold front that moved
through with cooler temperatures expected. The upper low that
escorted the cold front through on Thursday will become part of
a minor blocking pattern and set up shop over the New
England/Canadian Maritimes and will be a feature impacting
weather over the Upper OH Valley significantly. This will keep
the area dry through Saturday and temperatures will be below
normal. There may be a few instances of frost in the very
northeast corner of Forest County or in the microclimate of
Canaan Valley in eastern Tucker County.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Labor Day weekend
- Below average temperatures expected Sunday
- Potential for rising temperatures midweek
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long range guidance agrees that the mature upper-level low
responsible for today`s rain will stall north of New England
through the weekend. Persistent northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures running slightly below normal during the Labor Day
period. Minus fog, hazardous weather is expected to be low
during this time period.

Model confidence decreases by midweek as a potential trough
develops to our northwest. Around 40% of the model spread is
tied to the strength of this feature, which will ultimately
determine whether temperatures hold near average or rise above
it.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Round of very light showers is crossing the area this evening
ahead of the cold front. As this clears the region within the
next few hours, ceilings are expected to lower into MVFR, with
IFR becoming more likely late tonight into early morning.
IFR is most likely across FKL and DUJ. Ceilings should quickly
lift mid-morning with VFR areawide before 18z.

Post-frontal wind will shift northwesterly with afternoon gusts
of 15-20kts Friday afternoon.


.OUTLOOK...
VFR is confidently forecast through the Labor Day weekend with
prevailing high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley