994
FXUS61 KPBZ 181856
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
156 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing system may produce a brief period of wintry mix or
snow early this morning in eastern Ohio before transitioning to
rain in the afternoon and evening. Milder conditions are
expected toward the end of the week with returning rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances increase by this evening Tuesday; heavier
  amounts expected south of I-70
----------------------------------------------------------------

Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s everywhere
and the threat of frozen precipitation has ended. There was some
light snow and sleet this morning but with above freezing
temperatures during the day impacts were minimal.

Short wave trough over IL will accelerate east tonight in
confluent upper flow and gradually weaken as it reaches the
forecast area toward midnight. 850-700 mb warm advection will be
strongest toward West Virginia and thus strongest lift and
heaviest QPF will be along the Pennsylvania/West Virginia Border
on south. 25th-75th percentile QPF will be in 0.50-1.25" range
down south, and roughly 0.25-0.50" in the Pittsburgh metro. Much
lighter QPF expected toward I-80 with ranges of less than
0.10-0.25". It could stay dry in the far north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quieter weather
- Temperatures to moderate back towards normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure builds at the surface over the Great Lakes as 500
mb heights build about 80 meters. Significant sinking and drying
should break up the lingering stratus by late morning to midday
and result in high temperatures close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into this weekend
- Rain chances Thursday through Saturday with another passing
disturbance
- Dry conditions on Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday night, an upper-level trough will drop across the northern
Great Lakes bringing rain into the region by Friday. Ensembles
continue to maintain differences in the depth and speed of the
trough. A deeper and/or slower trough would lean towards higher
rainfall totals across the region while the weaker and/or faster
trough would result in lower rainfall accumulations. Either way, the
90th percentile rain accumulation looks to remain around or below 1
inch for the region. Highest accumulations will be across southern
Ohio and central/southern West Virginia.

A warm frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will cause high
temperatures on Friday to be 5-10 degrees above average. On
Friday/Friday night, the cold front crosses the region triggering a
northwest flow regime that could keep POPs elevated, especially
along the ridges, through Saturday due to orographic lift. Despite
cold FROPA, temperatures are expected to remain near normal.

The flow will become more westerly with a less amplified pattern by
Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This will begin a drier trend
as subtle height rises are favored for a brief period of time. By
Monday, ensembles hint at upper-level troughing advancing towards
the region. This will bring the next best chance for rain Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ceilings should rapidly drop to MVFR this afternoon and then IFR
by this evening as warm advection rainfall moistens the low
levels. Visibility should drop into the MVFR range overnight and
perhaps IFR late tonight. IFR likely to continue even as rain
ends after midnight with lingering low level moisture.

High pressure building over the Great Lakes Wednesday will push
drier air into area on northerly winds and VFR should return
late morning to early afternoon as low clouds rapidly break up.

Outlook...
Periodic restrictions and rain are expected Thursday through
this weekend as the area remains within a relatively active
weather pattern.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Craven