069
FXUS61 KPBZ 151822
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
122 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and warmth will help fuel showers and a few
gusty thunderstorms this evening, ahead of a crossing cold
front. Blustery and cooler weather is on tap for Sunday with
northwest-flow showers. Lake-effect snow is expected north of
I-80 Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mild and breezy this afternoon with increasing rain chances
- Showers and spotty thunderstorms with strong wind gusts this
  evening
- Wind gusts to 50 mph over east Tucker County WV ridges
---------------------------------------------------------------

A warm front has lifted north of the region this morning,
leading to a low-level moisture increase and temperatures in the
lower 60s, save for areas north of I-80, where 50s linger. Some
textured cumulus are noted beneath a veil of cirrus on satellite
loops, corroborating the elevated instability noted on 12 PBZ
sounding and recent ACARS profiles. A slightly eroded but
still-present capping warm layer exists at 850mb.

Strong 500mb height falls provided by a Great Lakes shortwave
and a 120-140 250mb jet dropping into the Ohio Valley will
provide support for lift. A cold front extending from deepening
low pressure over southern Ontario will provide additional
support as it crosses this evening into the early overnight
hours. While some scattered showers are expected in the warm
advection this afternoon, the main shower band will accompany
the front during the late afternoon and evening. Questions
mainly concern the potential for thunder and any severe weather
risk, mainly between the hours of 6 PM and 11 PM.

Deep-layer shear will certainly be present, to the tune of 45-55
knots in the 0-6km layer. The clouds will continue to be a
hindrance to heating, as will the seasonally low sun angle.
Ahead of the cold front, the HREF gives a 40-60% chance of 200
J/kg or more of surface-based CAPE. While the profiles may
extend into the -10C to -20C level and support some lightning,
strong updrafts will be hard to come by given the overall low
CAPE, limiting the potential for instances of downward transport
of 40-50 knot winds aloft. Cannot rule out a couple occurrences
of strong to damaging wind gusts at the surface, but the overall
threat remains low and the level 1 of 5 (Marginal) SPC severe
weather risk remains appropriate. QPF through tonight will not
be problematic; NBM 25-75th percentile values are generally
between 0.10 and 0.50 inch for most of the forecast area.

Shower coverage drops off quickly post-FROPA, although areas along
the terrain may see some scattered activity linger into the
overnight hours. Cold advection will bring overnight lows into
the 30s north of Pittsburgh and the 40s from the city south.

Gusty wind to 30 MPH will continue even away from
showers/storms through tonight. With the shift to northwest flow
overnight, strong pressure rises/cold advection will lead to
45-55 MPH gusts over the eastern Tucker Ridges, mainly above
3,500 feet. Continued the ongoing Wind Advisory that is in
effect through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Blustery and colder Sunday, with showers continuing north of
  Pittsburgh
- Wind gusts to 55 mph over east Tucker County WV ridges
- Probable lake effect snow band late Sunday into Monday north
  of I-80
----------------------------------------------------------------

Gusty wind continues through this period thanks to a tight
surface pressure gradient and ongoing cold advection keeping
low-level lapse rates steep. Gusts in the lowlands of 30 to 35
mph, higher in the ridges, and continuing to peak over 45 MPH in
eastern Tucker County, won`t diminish until later Monday
morning.

Scattered northwest-flow showers are forecast mainly north of
US-422 and especially north of I-80 on Sunday. A mix with, and
then a change to snow is expected as 850mb temperatures fall
farther below zero C, eventually reaching the -7C to -9C range
by Monday. Any showers closer to Pittsburgh are likely to remain
more rain with temperatures peaking in the lower 40s. Little
accumulation of snow is forecast during the Sunday daylight
hours.

Most guidance continues to advertise a persistent lake-effect
band developing that very well may have a three lake connection
(Superior/Huron/Erie). Development would occur Sunday night,
with the band persisting into Monday afternoon. The exact
placement of the band may waver a bit, but Forest seems to be
the most likely county of impact, with portions of Venango,
Clarion, and Jefferson also possibilities. Currently, we expect at
least 2-5" in areas that get under the band for a length of
time, and some model solutions suggest 6"+ is still a possible
outcome in the heaviest cases. Will allow for one more HREF run
to fully encompass the event before considering the issuance of
any lake effect snow headlines.

Any accumulation south of I-80 will be limited to a coating at
best, with little more than a flurry or two south of the PA
Turnpike. In fact, cloud coverage of less than 50 percent is
project for most of the area south of I-70. Even the Laurels and
West Virginia ridges are not projected to see any snow of note
as moisture remains too shallow overall.

Subfreezing temperatures Sunday night will be followed by a
chilly Monday, with highs in the 35 to 45 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lake-effect snow ends Monday night
- New disturbance returns rain/snow to the region Tuesday
- Above average temperatures mid to late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Any lingering lake-effect snow showers north of Pittsburgh
Monday evening should taper off after sunset as boundary-layer
winds weaken and prevail from the west, cutting off the Great
Lakes fetch. Early Tuesday morning lows are expected to fall
into the low to mid-20s under radiational cooling and continued
cold advection--roughly 10 degrees below climatological
averages.

Cloud cover and precipitation chances will increase Tuesday as a
new disturbance moves out of the Great Plains into the Ohio
River Valley. Given residual dry air in the low and mid-levels,
wet-bulb effects may allow some locations to start with snow
before transitioning to rain as warm advection strengthens.
Confidence remains low due to uncertainty in the low`s track
and dry slot placement. If snow does occur, it will likely be a
heavy, wet type with snow rations around 6:1 to 8:1. The
probability of precipitation beginning as snow is estimated at
10-20%.

More than half of the long-range model guidance favors a
developing ridge over the Great Lakes from Wednesday through
Friday, supporting above-average temperatures during this
period. There is no strong indication of widespread rainfall
between Wednesday through Thursday night, and the probability of
any precipitation remains low, generally around 30-35%.

Several model runs suggest a more substantial disturbance
developing over Oklahoma and Texas and then moving into the
region on Friday. Confidence in rainfall amounts remains low;
model analysis shows only about a 25% chance of 24-hour
precipitation amounts reaching or exceeding a half inch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture has increased behind a morning warm frontal passage.
MVFR ceilings are already present at most terminals, and these
ceiling should persist into this evening. Southwest wind will
continue to gust into the 20 to 25 knot range as well. A few
scattered showers (covered by PROB30 groups) can be expected
into the evening, ahead of a crossing cold front.T

The front will cross during the late evening hours, bringing a
concentrated area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Have used
two-hour TEMPO groups to try to time the most likely hours of
occurrence at the terminals. Have used lower-end MVFR ceiling
and visibility for now. Cannot rule out a brief period of heavy
rain creating IFR visibility, as well as a wind gust or two
into the 30 to 40 knot range in the heavier showers/storms.

Rain coverage will quickly decrease overnight behind the front,
although some northwest-flow showers may begin to show up at
FKL/DUJ after 12Z Sunday. Wind will shift to northwest behind
the front, and continue to gust to 20 to 25 knots overnight.
Wind gusts may increase to 30 knots or so once deeper mixing
becomes established later Sunday morning.

Outlook...
Lake-enhanced precipitation is expected behind the front on
Sunday with the typical scattered nature. MVFR cigs are likely
to persis at FKL/DUJ into Sunday afternoon. Another crossing
disturbance may bring rain and snow to the region on Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...CL