864
FXUS61 KPBZ 190753
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
353 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Warnings remain in effect early this morning for areas
northeast of Pittsburgh due to recent heavy rainfall. Enhanced
Risk issued by SPC for Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flood Warnings remain in effect through early Sunday

2) Enhanced Risk for severe weather on Tuesday; Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Over the last 6 hours, Flash Flood Warnings have been converted
to Flood Warnings. Although conditions are currently clear and
calm, creeks and streams, particularly near Red Bank Creek
northeast of Pittsburgh, may remain elevated until dawn due to
earlier heavy rainfall (3-4 inches). Red Bank Creek near
St.Charles may need to placed on a River Flood Warning in the
next 3-6 hours if it crests above 17ft. Please continue to
respect all road closures until water levels recede.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A powerful storm system is tracking from the Pacific Northwest
toward the Great Lakes over the next 2 days. By Tuesday, a
combination of high energy (1500J/kg to 2500J/kg) and strong
wind shear (effective shear 35kt-45kts) is expected to create a
significant risk of severe storms across the entire region,
leading the Storm Prediction Center to issue an Enhanced Risk or
our entire area. Residents should prepare for damaging wind
gusts, though tornadoes and large hail are also possible with
any developing supercell storms. A Severe T-Storm or Tornado
Watch will likely be issued during some period of time on
Tuesday.

Anomalously high moisture levels--with PWATS reaching the 80th
to 90th percentile --raise the risk of flash flooding for
Tuesday evening. Training storms could potential create swaths
of 2-4 inches of rainfall in a short period of time. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk for portions of
region. A Flash Flood Watch may become necessary pending
further clarity from high-resolution model data regarding
localized impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The probability of precipitation has decreased over the last 3
hours as dry air advances into the region in the wake of a
passing cold front. Low-level stratus and isolated fog is
expected to impact the terminals through at least 13Z due to
remnant moisture within the boundary layer. MVFR cigs will
likely to prevail while IFR/LIFR conditions could occasional
appear.

Between 13Z to 15Z expected VFR conditions to prevail with
diurnal heating. Between 18Z to 21Z, with sufficient mixing, SCT
to FEW low-level stratus is expected to mostly clear sky
conditions. Winds will generally prevail from the
north/northwest through the TAF period.

Outlook... Restrictions return in showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...Hefferan