613
FXUS61 KPBZ 041133
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to timing of rain were made today and tonight,
with minor adjustments to the weekend forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm today, then rain returns this afternoon and evening
into early Thursday.

2) Cooler Friday into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A closed low will continue to drift across the Upper Midwest
today. Southerly flow ahead of this trough, and mixing, should
result in high temperatures around 15 to 25 degrees above
average, with the warmest readings across PA and nrn WV. Some
sites could approach record highs before clouds thicken through
the day ahead of an approaching shortwave. This shortwave (and
associated cold front,) ahead of the main upper low, will
approach the region in SW flow aloft this afternoon, crossing
the region this evening into early Thursday. Moisture and
ascent with the wave, assisted by a jet aloft, should result in
rain overspreading the region from W-E this afternoon through
this evening. A low level jet and minimal elevated instability
could also result in an isolated thunderstorm.

Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches
for most areas. Low end QPF (10th percentile) is around 0.10,
with high end amounts (90th percentile) around 0.8 inches.

The shortwave and surface front should exit the region Thursday
morning, with decreasing rain chances. Temperatures will be
cooler than recent days, though still around 10 degrees above
average.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model ensembles indicate the upper low will open into a trough
Thursday, as it tracks across the Great Lakes region. Another
deepening upper low is then progged to drop SE through the
trough, reaching the Great Lakes region again on Friday. This
low should continue eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region
through Saturday. This should spread areas of rain across the
region again later Friday into Saturday. 850 mb temperatures are
also progged to drop to between 0 and -2 deg C during this time
according to the latest ensembles. This should bring temperature
back down to near seasonable levels over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid and upper clouds will continue to increase this morning ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough and surface cold front. The
front should slowly cross the region between late evening and
Thursday morning. Rain will overspread the region this afternoon
and evening ahead of the front, with ceilings and visibilities
falling into the MVFR category from west to east. Rain and
MVFR/patchy IFR restrictions are likely to continue overnight
with the crossing front, with MVFR ceilings hanging on even as
the rain starts to end towards sunrise.

Outlook...
Restrictions should continue into early Thursday as the front
completes its passage. After some improvement later Thursday
into Friday, restriction and rain potential returns later
Friday through Saturday with a crossing upper trough. Cold NW
flow behind the trough could maintain ceiling restrictions into
Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CL/WM