Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
753 FXUS61 KPBZ 011127 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 627 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures before rain chances return by mid to late week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure centered eastern NY/eastern PA will continue to maintain dry weather across the region today and tonight. Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the area in warm and moist advection aloft ahead of a shortwave across the Midwest. This shortwave trough is expected to weaken as it moves east, and crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region on Monday. At the surface, a weak warm front is also progged to lift NE on Monday. Moisture is expected to be limited with this system, though a few sprinkles or brief light rain is possible, mainly across OH, as the wave and surface front cross. Only a brief mention of slight chance POPs were included mainly west of I-77 on Monday. A ridge is then expected to build across the eastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a deepening central CONUS trough. This ridge should result in dry weather and the warmest temperatures of the week, with rising 500 mb heights. While it is not likely to set any record highs, temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above average. The central CONUS trough, and associated surface front, are expected to track eastward and approach the Upper Ohio Valley region late Wednesday. Rain chances gradually increase late in the day, peaking Wednesday night into Thursday as the trough and surface front cross the region. Model ensembles then indicate broad upper troughing will persist across the NE CONUS into Saturday, with periodic rain chances continuing as individual shortwaves rotate through the main trough. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will be maintained through the TAF period as surface high pressure remains in control. Mid and upper level clouds will continue to stream across the region ahead of a shortwave to our west, but no flight restrictions are foreseen. Light wind will continue out of a southeast direction as the high shifts east. Outlook... VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase late Wednesday and Thursday with approaching low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...WM