857
FXUS61 KPBZ 301728
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
128 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reduced key messages given minimal impacts expected over the
next 7 days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather persists before rain chances increase later next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure has regained control of the upper Ohio
River Valley and will combine with gradual height rises aloft
ensure more days without rain. Temperature will hold around 5
degrees above normal today/tomorrow despite cool advection
before rising well above normal (10+ degrees higher than the
daily average) starting Sunday.

Initial rain chances coincided with the eastward movement of a
trough currently entering the Central Plains, but ensemble
guidance continues to trend it towards a more muted/subtle wave
that sags south/southwest of the region for the Monday/Tuesday
period. Any rain chances those days (mainly Tuesday) would be
with a nominal warm front lifting through the region as the
ridge re-amplifies in conjunction with a secondary trough
deepening over the Intermountain West. Rain chances increase
Wednesday and beyond with that trough moving eastward, but
cluster analysis shows a large variance in its
shape/timing/depth that could portend further delays in the
return of rain. Regardless, concerns about impactful weather is
very low as ensemble mean RUNTIME accumulation (not just
24-hour, but full 7-day accumulation) shows only 10-30%
probability of exceeding 1" around the area. So even if the rain
finally does arrive, it is unlikely to pose much threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stratocu in cold advection and NW flow has slowly risen and
fractured early this afternoon ushering in the return of VFR
across the region. VFR is expected to continue through the 24
hour TAF window. NWerly winds are expected to be sustained near
10 kts across much of the region today, with gusts up to 20 kts
possible. Wind and clouds diminish this evening as high
pressure builds in. Morning fog looks possible early Saturday,
mainly north for FKL/DUJ.


Outlook...
Outside of any early morning river valley fog on Saturday, VFR
is expected into early next week. A disturbance will likely
bring an increase in mid level clouds Sunday night and Monday,
with only a slight chance of rain.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...AK