153
FXUS61 KPBZ 012333
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing likelihood for light rain/sprinkles through various
periods Monday, favoring eastern OH to northwest PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered light rain showers and/or sprinkles
across eastern OH to portions of northwest PA Monday.

2) Widespread rain chances are likely Wednesday night into
Thursday with varying low-impact outcomes thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An embedded shortwave containing increased moisture currently
resides around the Tennessee River Valley has trended more
favorable to lift northward in conjunction with trough deepening
out west and ridge building east Monday. The northward lift of
this wave acts as a weak warm front with a few more models
suggesting enough ascent to squeeze out pockets of light rain
and/or sprinkles through the day Monday; chances are mainly
confined west of I-77 in Ohio in the morning before shifting
towards the I-80 corridor through the evening.

This higher probability of occurrence trend is playing out more
confidently in available hi-res guidance versus more pessimistic
global models, resulting in a forecast that could undersell rain
chances (and oversell temperature) Monday if things like RRFS
play out. The mean forecast seems like a fair compromise between
priors and these recent hi-res trends given dry sub-700mb air in
the region may limit any rain from being "accumulating".

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Warm southwest flow with height rises Monday into through
midweek support dry weather with temperature rising nearly 20
degrees above average by Wednesday afternoon (though record
high temperatures are unlikely).

Ensemble trends suggest the advertised surface low/trough combo
bringing widespread rain chances late Wednesday into Thursday
tracks NW of the region, which could result in a less concrete
swath of rain as jet ascent potentially fades as it arrives. It
would also, though, offer limited (but non-zero) chances for
enough buoyancy to allow for a lightning strike or two; severe
chances remains very low. After the initial wave passes, dry
slotting may usher a break in rain chances with marginal post-
frontal cold advection merely dropping temperature to only 5-10
degrees above normal. Variability in synoptic patterns among
ensembles members thereafter that suggests little confidence
beyond a potentially more active pattern with near to slightly
above normal temperature and minimal impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid and upper level cloud cover will dominate through tonight,
with ceilings remaining well above MVFR thresholds. Light and
variable wind should continue through the period.

Ceilings fall slightly Monday morning as warm advection and an
approaching shortwave bring a gradual moisture increase. Some
sprinkles or very light rain are possible at ZZV prior to 18Z,
but probability and overall impact are expected to be low, and
thus mention was left out of the TAF for now.

Outlook...
VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase
late Wednesday and Thursday with approaching low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...Rackley/CL