585
FXUS61 KPBZ 081745
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
145 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions can be expected today and into the
upcoming weekend behind a departing cold front and with
developing high pressure. A moderate chance for some measurable
precipitation Saturday into Sunday. Pattern variability exists
at the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered to broken afternoon clouds, clearing this evening
- Low temperatures in the 30s, with at least patchy frost likely
  north and east of Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------------------------

Scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus remain across the
region this afternoon in northwesterly cold advection behind the
departed cold front. Wind gusts have been fairly intermittent so
far, but with steepening low-level lapse rates as indicated on
ACARS soundings, still expect some to 20 to 25 MPH peak values
during the afternoon.

Most of the cloud cover will collapse with the loss of diurnal
heating, with a mostly clear overnight period. Despite the rain
yesterday and last night, a day of drying (aided by wind) and
falling dewpoints should limit fog to a few isolated valleys
overnight.

While the surface pressure gradient will relax somewhat with the
center of high pressure tracking across western New York, much
of the guidance suggests some light north or northeast wind
continuing through much of tonight. This will prevent
radiational cooling from being as efficient as it could be, and
could also hinder the formation of dew (and thus frost) in some
cases. Sticking with NBM mean low temperature still seems
prudent in this setup. The area where values in the lower and
mid 30s are expected, to the north and/or east of Pittsburgh,
still matches up well with the existing Frost Advisory and will
not make any changes to that headline. Still, as suggested
above, frost may end up being a bit more patchy than anything.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Around 5 degrees below normal Thursday
- Thursday night`s lows may result in morning frost or freezing
  conditions
- Friday`s high around average with overnight lows in the 40s
----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry and cooler temperatures continue Thursday as the high continues
to transition southeastward towards New England by Friday morning
with a ridge extending southwestward to eastern Kentucky. Due to the
large scale subsidence, cloud development will be limited. Even with
clear skies, Thursday`s high temperatures are expected to be in the
low 60s with areas north of I-80 only reaching into the upper 50s.

Overnight, there will be a light downslope (warming) easterly wind,
however, low temperatures are forecast to be cooler than tonight.
Latest guidance shows at least a 35% or higher probability of
reaching 32F in areas northeast of I-76. A Freeze Watch has been
issued for the same areas mentioned above, and areas to the south
could potentially need a Frost Advisory as well.

On Friday, the ridge will remain in the region with mostly clear
skies. Wind is expected to shift out of the southeast and highs are
forecast to reach into the mid to upper 60s, around average
temperatures. Light southeasterly wind will persist overnight
inhibiting efficient radiative cooling. This will result in warmer
overnight lows into the 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Chance for measurable precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
- Temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F
- Pattern variability exists at the start of next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure will move offshore overnight Friday. By
Saturday, a weak upper-level trough from over the Great Lakes will
bring a moderate chance (40%-50%) for measurable precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday. High temperatures are expected to remain
in the upper 60s to near 70 over the weekend.

This upper level trough is expected to merge with second upper-level
over the east coast (associated with a surface low moving up the
eastern seaboard). This brings a higher level of uncertainty in the
forecast from there on out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period. Scattered to
broken cumulus/stratocumulus will generally have bases in the 5k
to 6k foot range this afternoon. North to northwest wind should
still gust to around 20 knots at times, although gusts may be
fairly intermittent. Clouds should collapse this evening with
the loss of heating, and a mostly clear overnight period is
foreseen. Despite the recent rain, a much drier airmass,
today`s gusty wind, and light northerly wind should preclude
anything more than very isolated valley fog.

Past sunrise, a mostly clear sky will continue with an overall
dry atmospheric column. Wind may veer slightly to a more
northeasterly direction by late morning, remaining at 10 knots
or less into the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Other than early morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Saturday under high pressure. A low potential for
restrictions returns Saturday night and Sunday with a crossing
upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-073>078.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ510>514.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...CL