273
FXUS61 KPBZ 310505
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
105 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Already minimal rain chances have decreased further early next
week. No other major changes were made to the latest forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather is expected to continue until rain chances
increase toward the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure will drift east across the region through
Sunday, maintaining dry weather. Mid and high clouds are
expected to increase in warm advection ahead of a weakening
shortwave trough across the Midwest. This trough is progged to
cross the Upper Ohio Valley region on Monday, though with
diminishing ascent and a lack of deep layer moisture, a dry
forecast was maintained.

Model ensembles indicate ridging will build across the Upper
Ohio Valley region again Tuesday, with decreased clouds, dry
weather, and likely the warmest temperatures of the week. A
trough across the central CONUS is then expected to advance
eastward on Wednesday, approaching and crossing the region
late Wednesday and Thursday. This is expected to bring
increasing rain chances, with the highest POPs currently on
Thursday. Lingering broad upper troughing should keep rain
chances in the forecast at times Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
River valley fog should result in IFR visibility at times for
FKL early this morning. Low level moisture could also bring MVFR
stratus to DUJ early this morning as well. Otherwise, high
pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Increasing mid and high level clouds are expected in warm
advection ahead of a weakening shortwave trough across the
Midwest.

Outlook...
VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase
Wednesday with approaching low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM