956
FXUS61 KPBZ 120020
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
820 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected this evening, but a coastal low
may increase the chances of light rain showers east of
Pittsburgh, lingering into Monday. Dry and warm conditions
expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a building ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light showers activity, mainly east of Pittsburgh after
  midnight
- Temperatures a few degrees above normal
---------------------------------------------------------------

Compact upper-level low pressure will continue to drift eastward
across New York State tonight. Some clouds will continue to
linger across the region as a result. Any precipitation through
midnight will be limited to a few light showers/sprinkles north
of I-80. Thereafter, more robust easterly flow may provide
enough moisture for a few scattered showers east of Pittsburgh
prior to sunrise, but overall weak forcing and marginal moisture
will limit activity.

Cloud cover and ongoing mixing overnight should keep overnight
lows a few degrees above climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Coastal low may bring rain showers into portions of the region Sunday
  into Monday
- Drier conditions expected Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------

An Atlantic Coast low currently impacting the Carolinas will
continue to move northward over the next 24 to 48 hours. As
northeast winds transport Atlantic moisture into eastern and
central Pennsylvania, low-level cloud coverage is expected to
increase significantly east of Pittsburgh. Any precipitation
that develops Sunday into Monday will likely be terrain-induced,
resulting from southeastern upsloping. A tightening pressure
gradient along the Laurel Highlands and West Virginia ridges may
also lead to breezy conditions from early Sunday morning
through Monday morning.

Rainfall amounts be likely be less than 0.25 inch across the
region; isolated spots in eastern Tucker may measure over a half
inch.

Drier conditions are likely early Tuesday as a ridge axis shifts
from the Plains into the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Cooler and dry mid-week before uncertainty builds late-week with
large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------
At this time there seems to be enough agreement that the wave exits
the Eastern Seaboard meaningfully on Tuesday and that subtle height
rises help push highs back into the low to mid 70s (widespread
probabilities greater than 70% for highs > 70 degrees south of I-
80).

Ensembles then diverge on exactly how they interact a Hudson Bay
trough and a high confidence central CONUS ridge but most come to a
northwest flow regime across the region by midweek with Canadian
high pressure settling across the region. This would favor a nod
towards lower temperatures, clearer skies (with a few efficient
radiative cooling nights possible) and increased POPs closer to Lake
Erie.

By the end of next week, ensembles diverge on pressing the central
CONUS ridge eastward towards us or allowing the Hudson Bay trough to
cutoff across the Northeast. A cutoff would favor continued
northwest flow, while parking under the ridge would return
unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions linger across the region as low pressure disturbance
(near Buffalo, NY) tracks southeastward. Precipitation chances are
consider low for all terminals through 08Z Sunday.

A coastal low tracking up the eastern seaboard is expected to merge
with the disturbance in our region. As a result, MVFR to IFR
restrictions are possible along with showers Sunday morning. There
will likely be an east-west cutoff to the restrictions with the
highest probability lying farther east, but some uncertainty exists
with how far west sufficient moisture exists. The terrain could
prevent moisture from spilling over towards AGC/BVI/MGW/PIT,
however, there is a moderate probability for MVFR ceilings. Due
to upsloping, LBE and DUJ has a high probability to experience
impacts from MVFR ceilings with a low/moderate chance from IFR
ceilings.

By the afternoon, restrictions should lift at all terminals with the
ridge associated with a high to the northeast moves into the region.
During this time, expect easterly gusts up to 15-20 knots.


.OUTLOOK...
Sunday night into Monday morning, probabilities for ceiling
restrictions and showers will remain highest farther east with
an east/west cutoff. These restrictions are associated with the
lingering coastal low. By midweek, high pressure will build back
into the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/CL
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Hefferan/Lupo