798
FXUS61 KPBZ 280554
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
154 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Deleted 1st Key Message. Updated Key Message 2 and moved it into
1st Key Message.  Aviation discussion with 06Z TAF package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mostly dry stretch of weather from Monday through Thursday
with warming temperatures, before a late week front returns
precipitation chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As the coastal trough associated with the nor`easter pulls
offshore, 500mb ridging will be able to build across the Upper
Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Dry weather will result into
Thursday, with that latter day representing the peak of a
warming trend as southwest flow amps up behind a Carolina
surface high. Ensemble trends are a bit stronger for ridging by
Thursday. NBM probabilities for 80F or greater high
temperatures that day remain between 50 and 80 percent for most
non-ridge locations south of I-80. That said, dewpoints topping
out in the low 60s will keep heat risk concerns relatively
muted. Currently, probabilities for moderate or higher heat risk
levels are 10 percent or less.

There are differences in opinion in the longer-range models
regarding the strength and timing of the next shortwave trough
crossing the Canadian prairies and potentially the Great Lakes
later in the week. ECMWF AI Ensemble has strong ridging signal
Thursday through Saturday over the area, and the trend on most
ensembles has been much drier for Thursday as a result. Still,
at least scattered shower activity becomes more likely Thursday
night/Friday in the moistening warm sector, with rain chances
lingering into the weekend. Severe weather potential looks muted
by meager instability, and probabilities for significant rain
are listed below.

24 hour probability of 0.50"+ rainfall
12z Thu to 12z Fri: 5-15% with highest in OH
12z Fri to 12z Sat: 15-25%
12z Sat to 12z Sun: 20-30% with highest in WV
12z Sun to 12z Mon: 25-45% with highest southern half
12z Mon to 12z Tue: 10-20% with highest in WV

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR ceilings in place already at DUJ and likely to stay that way
until midday. Given earlier rain certainly could be IFR
visibility for a few hours centered around 12z.

Elsewhere VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually lower
to MVFR overnight. Because of clear skies around ZZV, there is
the potential for radiation fog toward 12z. Did not include it
but will monitor trends closely.

Ceilings will remain in place most of the day with gradual rise
toward upper end of MVFR. May be a period of VFR ceilings in the
evening before breaks in the clouds allow for radiation fog
formation toward 06z. Do expect IFR to LIFR in fog for most
locations Tuesday morning.

After burning off Tuesday mid morning, expect potential for
repeat of radiation fog late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.


Outlook...
VFR is generally Wednesday and Thursday. Restrictions are
possible Thursday night and Friday with showers returning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Craven