351
FXUS61 KPBZ 292139
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
539 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Later next week favors warmer weather.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through mid-week,
warmer weather and low rain chances return late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue around the south-western base for a
eastern CONUS trough. The pattern will bring a high probability
of dry, seasonable weather (highs in 70s, lows in upper 40s/low
50s) through at least next Tuesday. Chances of rain have gone
down even more in early week with shortwaves around the trough
displaced east in more recent guidance.

Temperature uncertainty increases mid-week with ensembles
indecisive of ridging or the stagnation of a closed low around
the eastern seaboard. This may be the difference between
remaining seasonable or temperatures trending ~10F above
average Wednesday/Thursday, but most likely dry in any scenario.

Next Friday into Saturday, confidence increases in ridging
winning out, but there is more uncertainty in temperatures
affiliated with a digging surface front late-week which will
also return the next sizable chance of any rain. CIPS also
alludes this as the next non-zero chance of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR tomorrow and Sunday.

A passing cold front will shift winds from the north after dark
and then northwest right before sunrise Saturday. There may be
some gusty conditions early tomorrow morning near FKL/DUJ
(20-25kts). Otherwise, mostly dry conditions. Winds will
diminish as a disturbance over New England shifts east.

Outlook... High confidence in VFR conditions early to mid-week
with lingering high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Milcarek
AVIATION...Hefferan