Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
638 FXUS61 KPBZ 292351 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 751 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is high that hot and humid conditions return Monday through Wednesday. Continuing to monitor the potential for severe weather mid-week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions Monday through Wednesday 2) Severe weather potential Wednesday into Thursday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As a large-scale trough axis develops across the West Coast over the next 48hrs, ridging will strengthen across the Great Lakes and East Coast, ushering hot and humid conditions back into the region. The probability of temperatures reaching the upper-80s and low-90s is elevated, exceeding 70% early this week, which will contribute to an increased heat risk. Several climate sites may tie, come within a few degrees of, or break record warm minimum temperatures Monday through Wednesday. Long-range models indicated that the ridge will weaken late week and into the holiday weekend, reducing the probability of hot conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2... As the aforementioned ridge begins to break down (mentioned in Key Message 1), the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall will increase across parts of the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The area of greatest interest currently appears to be north of Pittsburgh, where the northern extent of the ridge axis will interact with a passing trough over Canada. This area is expected to have the best potential for favorable strong vertical wind shear and instability, supported by the increasing warm, moist southwest flow early in the week. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a 15% probability of severe storms Wednesday into Thursday for northern Pennsylvania. Should the ridge axis sag farther south towards I-80, the risk area for severe storms could expand to include a larger portion of our region. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR prevails throughout the TAF period with high clouds becoming more dense overnight as a weak disturbance approaches the lower Great Lakes from the west. Some hi-res guidance suggests a low chance for a few sprinkles or light showers early Sunday morning as cloud bases lower to the 7-10kft range, but confidence in that occurring is too low to warrant mention at area terminals since sub-cloud evaporation is expected to be an issue given a dry near-surface environment. Winds remain light but should become better established out of the southwest during the day Sunday ahead of the aforementioned system moving across the lower Great Lakes. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday, scattered showers are forecast across Lake Erie and into western NY and potentially as far south as northwest PA along the periphery of an upper ridge that sets up from the central CONUS into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley regions. The bulk of that activity should remain north of the local area, but can`t rule out some stray showers making it far enough south to bring occasional periods of lower cigs/vis to FKL/DUJ through that time. Elsewhere across the local area, VFR and mostly dry weather prevail under stronger influence from the upper ridge. The ridge is forecast to break down Wednesday in response to a large upper low moving across southern Canada. An upper trough that extends southward from that low swings across the Great Lakes and into New England and eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing shower/thunderstorm chances (and associated restrictions) back to the local area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...Cermak