996
FXUS61 KPBZ 302313
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
713 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After cool and dry weather today, more seasonable temperatures
expected for Sunday and Labor Day. The next rain chances arrive
Wednesday evening and last through Thursday night with the
approach of the next cold front. Cooler and drier conditions
favored once again late-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool and dry weather prevails.
- Possible river valley fog tomorrow morning.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Mostly clear skies and patchy high clouds allowing for daytime
mixing. Cold low-levels persist for the day allowing for the
continuation of below average temperatures today. Shallow lake-
enhanced moisture with a light northerly flow will allow for a
scattered fair weather daytime cumulus deck, most prevalent in the
afternoon. All in all, a pleasant day with no hazards expected.

Tonight, light northerly winds expected to persist. Combined with
any prolonged clearing, there is a chance for some river valley fog
development tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Valley fog forecast each morning, with a slight warming trend
  in temperatures with dry conditions for most.
- A spotty shower possible in Tucker County Sunday afternoon
----------------------------------------------------------------

A upper level disturbance passes Sunday. This won`t be bring much to
our region save for the West Virginia mountains where moisture
pooling due to surface convergence could see a stray shower in our
southern most county of Tucker.  Soundings show a decent amount of
dry air below 800mb.   Surface T/Td spreads are forecast to be on
the order of 10F, so it will be tough to get a wetting rain, maybe a
few sprinkles.  Given low level wind is from the southeast thinking
the measurable precip will stay to our south in parts of
Charleston`s county warning area.

It will be a chamber of commerce Labor Day holiday with lots of
sunshine and a light east wind.  With a slightly warmer column
expect max_T values to be 1-2F above Sunday.  This pushes much of
the region into the mid and upper 70s.

Wind shifts around to the southeast areawide Tuesday bringing more
low level moisture to the region.  This will keep overnight lows in
the 50s save for the sheltered valleys and allow highs to get close
to 80F in urban areas and south of I70.  The overall temperature
confidence is above average in the short term as the spread between
25th-75th percentiles remains less than 4F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A shot at needed rainfall mid-week, but no soaker!
- Below normal temperatures return Friday through next weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Clustering analysis illustrates strong agreement through September
3rd in the overall long wave pattern.  This is characterized by
full latitude troughiness across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. As
we move further into next week, there are strength differences
regarding the upstream ridge / western side of trough over south
central Canada.  Either way, the message remains the same of below
normal heights /two to three standard deviations/ equating to below
normal temperatures as we start the new month and several shots at
rainfall, however no washouts or downpours to take bite out of the
precip deficit after the driest August in 36 years for most
communities.

As the mid level cyclone continues to strengthen over the western
Great Lakes, a transitory trough moves through Wednesday spreading
clouds and light QPF to the region.  The probability of a wetting
rain />0.10"/ remains somewhat low east of I-77 where values are in
the 40 percentile range.  As you go west of I-77 values jump into
the 50s and 60s percent range.  Wednesday night and Thursday appears
the highest likelihood of rain and more than 0.10" of QPF. Pops
continue to be in the likely range for a good chunk of our region
when the baroclinic zone moves through.

As Tuesday will be the warmest day of the next seven, Friday will be
the coldest.  In fact, Friday most locations won`t get out of the
60s /about ten degrees below normal/.  Consequently at night, lows
will drop off into the 40s with frost possible in the Allegheny
National Forest and deeper gorges of the West Virginia mountains
come Saturday morning.

Historically at most of our climates sites, September`s average
monthly precipitation is right in the middle /6th most/.
Pittsburgh`s average value is 3.30".

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly clear conditions are expected into the nighttime hours.
Some late-night high clouds are possible with a passing
shortwave trough. These may be enough to suppress valley fog
formation in some cases. Still think FKL could see a brief dip
to IFR if clouds are not too widespread.

Any valley fog will dissipate by mid-morning, with high-
confidence VFR through the day with few to scattered afternoon
cumulus. Northeast wind less than 10 knots is expected by midday
and continuing into the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Save daily morning fog chances, VFR is confidently forecast
through the Labor Day weekend with prevailing high pressure.
Slight chance for CIG restrictions returning Tuesday with the
return of upper-level troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek/Lupo
NEAR TERM...Milcarek/Lupo
SHORT TERM...McMullen
LONG TERM...McMullen
AVIATION...CL