748
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAF package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mostly dry stretch of weather from Monday through Thursday
with warming temperatures, before a late week front returns
precipitation chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As the coastal trough associated with the nor`easter pulls
offshore, 500mb ridging will be able to build across the Upper
Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Dry weather will result into
Thursday, with that latter day representing the peak of a
warming trend as southwest flow amps up behind a Carolina
surface high. Ensemble trends are a bit stronger for ridging by
Thursday. NBM probabilities for 80F or greater high
temperatures that day remain between 50 and 80 percent for most
non-ridge locations south of I-80. That said, dewpoints topping
out in the low 60s will keep heat risk concerns relatively
muted. Currently, probabilities for moderate or higher heat risk
levels are 10 percent or less.

There are differences in opinion in the longer-range models
regarding the strength and timing of the next shortwave trough
crossing the Canadian prairies and potentially the Great Lakes
later in the week. ECMWF AI Ensemble has strong ridging signal
Thursday through Saturday over the area, and the trend on most
ensembles has been much drier for Thursday as a result. Still,
at least scattered shower activity becomes more likely Thursday
night/Friday in the moistening warm sector, with rain chances
lingering into the weekend. Severe weather potential looks muted
by meager instability, and probabilities for significant rain
are listed below.

24 hour probability of 0.50"+ rainfall
12z Thu to 12z Fri: 5-15% with highest in OH
12z Fri to 12z Sat: 15-25%
12z Sat to 12z Sun: 20-30% with highest in WV
12z Sun to 12z Mon: 25-45% with highest southern half
12z Mon to 12z Tue: 10-20% with highest in WV

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Except for HLG, which should follow in fairly short order,
terminals are generally at IFR/low MVFR ceilings this morning.
These ceilings will generally remain in place through the day,
with a gradual rise to upper-end MVFR values.

There may be a period of VFR ceilings during the evening. Then,
as clouds break with the nor`easter pulling further offshore,
radiation fog formation is forecast towards 06Z. Do expect IFR
to LIFR in fog for most locations Tuesday morning.

After burning off Tuesday mid morning, expect potential for
repeat of radiation fog late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Restrictions are
possible Friday with showers returning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...CL/Craven