270
FXUS61 KPBZ 281828
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
228 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop southeast through the area this
afternoon/evening and into the overnight

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation chances return this afternoon/evening
- Rainfall amounts will be light
- Dry conditions to overcome
---------------------------------------------------------------

The prefrontal conditions today will feature dry conditions as
the dew point depressions are around 20 degrees in some
instances and even some 30 degree differences. The amount of dry
air in place with a somewhat moisture starved front moving
through might only add up to a few instances of measurable
rainfall. Temperatures are below normal and will be around 5
degrees below normal for highs this afternoon. Its reasonable to
believe that some locations over the north in Mercer and
Venango will at least measurable. In fact, the NBM probs give
above 60% for 0.01 amounts north of Allegheny County.

The showers and any thunderstorms will begin to dissipate
overnight with the bulk of the rain chances being confined to
the areas north of I-80. Low temperatures tonight will be well
under normal values for this time of year. Areas that received
rainfall may deal with a bit more of a fog potential overnight
but this will depend if some areas clear out behind the front.
The possibility of winds being a little elevated will nix the
fog potential as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain early Friday morning
- Cool temperatures continue
- Below average temperatures expected Saturday
----------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will resume behind the cold front that moved
through with cooler temperatures expected. The upper low that
escorted the cold front through on Thursday will become part of
a minor blocking pattern and set up shop over the New
England/Canadian Maritimes and will be a feature impacting
weather over the Upper OH Valley significantly. This will keep
the area dry through Saturday and temperatures will be below
normal. There may be a few instances of frost in the very
northeast corner of Forest County or in the microclimate of
Canaan Valley in eastern Tucker County.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Labor Day weekend
- Below average temperatures expected Sunday
- Potential for rising temperatures midweek
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long range guidance agrees that the mature upper-level low
responsible for today`s rain will stall north of New England
through the weekend. Persistent northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures running slightly below normal during the Labor Day
period. Minus fog, hazardous weather is expected to be low
during this time period.

Model confidence decreases by midweek as a potential trough
develops to our northwest. Around 40% of the model spread is
tied to the strength of this feature, which will ultimately
determine whether temperatures hold near average or rise above
it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
West-southwesterly gusts up to 20kts for ports near AGC and north
through the afternoon when an increase of clouds will start ahead of
the cold front. After the first round of possible rain ahead of the
front tonight, ceilings will begin to lower. Chances of at least
MVFR cigs are generally >60% overnight with IFR becoming more likely
late tonight into the early morning. Precipitation and restriction
chances are highest at FKL and DUJ with Prob30s denoting uncertainty
elsewhere.

Post frontal passage, winds will shift out of the northwest
resulting in the chance for some orographical precipitation along
the southern Appalachian ridge-line. During tomorrow afternoon,
expect gusts of up to 20 knots. Lingering MVFR/IFR restrictions are
likely to tomorrow morning before mixing and lifting out.

.OUTLOOK...
Once conditions become VFR Friday afternoon, no restrictions are
expected Labor day weekend. There is high confidence in a prevailing
high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Lupo