103
FXUS61 KPBZ 130600
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A portion of the region south of Interstate 70 has been included
in a Marginal Risk for thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind
gusts Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no major changes with the
overall forecast message.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and warm today, before showers return with a
Wednesday cold front

2) Strong late week cold front resulting in showers and gusty
wind. Colder temperatures arrive for the weekend, along with low
chances for rain/snow showers Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Stratus was developing, mainly across NW PA, with low level
moisture in place. Model soundings and HREF probabilities of low
clouds indicate this area should expand through the early
morning, and cover much of the area north of Rt 422, and along
the ridges.

Surface low pressure is expected to track east across the Lower
Great Lakes and Ontario through the day. A tightening pressure
gradient, a 30-25kt 850 mb jet, and mixing should result in
gusty SW wind (around 25 mph) by late morning. This should
result in stratus mixing out and dissipating. Rising 500 mb
heights and mixing should also result in high temperatures
around 15 degrees above average. A morning shower is possible
north of I-80 as the low tracks to our north.

A shortwave is expected to advance eastward from the Midwest
Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a surface cold front drifts
south across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Showers are expected
to increase as this wave crosses the region. Shear increases,
though instability is expected to be minimal, with ML CAPE less
than 500 j/kg south of the cold front by Wednesday afternoon. A
few gusty thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-70, where
the Storm Prediction Center has added a Marginal Risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model ensembles indicate the surface cold front should stall
south of I-70 Wednesday night into Thursday, before returning
north as a warm front Thursday afternoon as a deepening
shortwave trough and surface low pressure track across the
Midwest. The low is expected to reach the Lower Great Lakes
region late Thursday night into Friday, pulling a strong cold
front across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A jet aloft, mixing,
and a strong pressure gradient should result in wind gusts from
35-45 mph across the region Friday, with advisory level gusts
likely across portions of the higher terrain. There is a
possibility of high wind warning criteria gusts across eastern
Tucker county. In the lower elevations, NBM probabilities for
gusts of 45 mph or greater are generally 50 percent or less,
though these will be monitored over the next couple of days.
BUFKIT momentum transfer does indicate a potential for advisory
level wind gusts across the remainder of the area on Friday as
well.

Strong cold advection after FROPA, an upper trough, and lake
enhancement should result in rain and snow shower chances Friday
night into early Saturday. Probability of a tenth of an inch of
snow is generally 10 percent or less from NW PA to the higher
terrain. Building surface high pressure should result in
decreasing rain/snow showers chances by Saturday afternoon. With
the colder air, frost and freeze conditions will also be
possible, especially Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level moisture in place, and low level warm advection, has
resulted in a stratus layer north of an IDI-BTP line. The latest
model soundings and HREF probabilities indicate this layer
should persist through mid morning. Elsewhere, patchy stratus is
possible, so included a scattered layer in the TAFs to indicate
this possibility. Probabilities were too low for a broken layer.

Otherwise, surface low pressure is expected to track across the
Lower Great Lakes today. An increasing pressure gradient and
mixing should result in gusty SW wind from 20-25kt by mid
morning. This mixing should also dissipate the stratus layer.
VFR is expected, with some patchy mid level clouds. Wind should
diminish this evening as mixing ends.

Outlook...
Restrictions in showers and possible thunderstorms return
Wednesday with a slow moving cold front. This front is expected
to return north as a warm front Thursday, with additional shower
and restriction chances. A strong cold front is expected to
cross the region Friday morning, with showers and widespread
gusty wind. Subsequent upper troughing should maintain
restriction potential, along with scattered rain/snow showers
into early Saturday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM