702
FXUS61 KPBZ 290800
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
400 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region this morning,
producing spotty showers or areas of drizzle. Conditions will
turn dry for the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Advancing cold front this morning
- Drier conditions late morning into late evening
- High confidence in below average temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------

Based on surface observations, a cold front is currently
situated over Lake Erie early this morning. Over the next 12
hours the front will continue to track south and exit over the
Laurel Highlands by late morning. Radar reflectivity will be
light and spotty ahead of the front before dry air aloft ejects
into the region. Additional rainfall will likely be less than
0.10 inches. Patchy fog may develop in eastern Ohio with
periods of clearing.

With clouds and advancing cool air aloft in the wake of the
front, expect below average temperatures this afternoon with
wind gusts ranging between 20-25mph northeast of Pittsburgh and
in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Potential for fog early Saturday
-Below average temperatures continue but with drier conditions
----------------------------------------------------------------

Clearing skies late tonight into early Saturday will support
radiational cooling, increasing the potential for fog across
parts of the region. High resolution guidance highlights the
best chance for dense fog to be north of Pittsburgh, near I-80.

Any fog that develops will dissipate shorty after sunrise with
boundary layer mixing. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer
than Friday but remain below seasonal averages under northerly
flow aloft.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Labor Day weekend
- Below average temperatures expected Sunday
- Rain chances return Wednesday/Thursday
- Potential for cooler temperatures Thursday/Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper-level trough that brought precipitation to the region
over the last 24 hours will shift east of New England and
toward Nova Scotia on Sunday. In its wake, deep northerly flow
along the East Coast, reinforced by ridging over the Midwest,
will keep temperatures running slightly below normal, with highs
in the mid-70s. A potential inverted trough across the
Appalachian Mountains may prompt isolated showers over the
ridges of West Virginia Sunday afternoon. However, probability
of measurable precipitation is considered low (less than 30%).

Long range guidance remains consistent in showing precipitation
chances returning Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an
approaching trough and cold front. Machine learning is currently
picking up a signal for potential strong storms with this
passing trough (5-15% chance of severe storms over the East
Coast) that will need to be monitored over the next few days.

By Friday into Saturday,trends in the synoptic pattern strongly
favor a cooler setup as an upper-level trough axis settles over
the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A round of widely scattered light showers is progressing
through along a cold front, which will cross the area through
12Z. Expected impacts include dropping cigs to borderline
MVFR/IFR and veering winds to northwest. Ports may incur a brief
light rain, but thus far, no impacts to vis category are noted.

Chances of at least a period of MVFR by daybreak are 60% to 80%
compared to 40% to 60% for IFR. Any lingering low level cigs
are expected to scatter out in high pressure and VFR through the
day today in northwest flow, becoming clear overnight.

.OUTLOOK...
Save daily morning fog chances, VFR is confidently forecast
through the Labor Day weekend with prevailing high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Milcarek