195
FXUS61 KPBZ 180746
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
246 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing system may produce a brief period of wintry mix or
snow early this morning in eastern Ohio before transitioning to
rain in the afternoon and evening. Milder conditions are
expected toward the end of the week with returning rain chances.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential for hazardous travel early Tuesday with mixed
  precipitation chances
- Rain chances increase early afternoon Tuesday; heavier
  amounts expected south of I-70
----------------------------------------------------------------

A disturbance moving across the Midwest, spurred on by an upper
level low trucking across the Plains, continues eastward early
this morning. At the time of this writing precipitation remains
back across Indiana with a tongue of virga spurred by WAA
further east into Ohio.

POPs across our region increase first in eastern Ohio near
sunrise. Plenty of dry air at the SFC limits initial intensity
as the falling precipitation works to saturate the column.
Soundings largely support wet bulbing leading to frozen
precipitation at onset. At this time, the favored p-type at
onset looks to be snow or sleet with minimal chance to melt
before it reaches a SFC below freezing. However, models
sometimes underestimate WAA and there exists a chance to see
light instances of freezing rain. These chances are highest in
eastern Ohio largely south of I-70 between about 6-9 AM before
SFC temperatures warm and precipitation turns over to rain. At
any rate there exists a chance to see isolated icy spots during
the morning commute in eastern Ohio.

For now, given the lingering uncertainty and the slightly
higher potential for sleet as opposed to freezing rain, we favor
the issuance of a Special Weather Statement for the morning
commute. We cannot rule out the need for a Winter Weather
Advisory if precipitation arrives earlier or WAA is truly
underestimated, leading to more freezing rain.

The ridges of PA and WV also could see isolated instances of
mixed precipitation at onset, but delayed start times closer to
mid-to- late morning look to limit this window and thus impacts.


Closer to Pittsburgh and on north and east, precipitation is
favored to begin as a push of heavy wet snow if precipitation
begins in the mid morning hours. Snowfall accumulations would be
very light and wouldn`t stick around long as precipitation
changes quickly to and continues as rain. If precipitation is
slower to come in and cannot fully fight through the dry air at
the SFC, then precipitation could be entirely rain from the
onset. Latest hi-res models and soundings lean towards this
second scenario.

Rainfall amounts will vary widely, increasing from north to
south. Up along the I-80 corridor places may be lucky to scrape
a few hundredths together. Closer to the latitude of Pittsburgh
totals are largely between 0.25-0.50 inches. The highest totals
reside south of I-70, where between 0.50-0.80 inches could fall
in the lowlands and a persistent upslope could see totals near
the 1 inch mark in the ridges of WV.

POPs wind down quickly overnight Tuesday as the system exits as
quickly as it came.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quieter weather
- Temperatures to moderate back towards normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

Subtle height rises begin early Wednesday morning and favor a
return to drier and calmer weather with moderating temperatures.
A shortwave could move through the flow and squash these rising
heights by Wednesday night promoting low-end rain chances,
mostly in the PA and WV ridges. POPs fall during the daylight
hours of Thursday as temperatures return to normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into next weekend
- Rain chances rise again late week with another passing
  disturbance likely
- Possible dry conditions on Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

An upper trough and possibly closed low look to drop from the
Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes by Thursday night. There
remains differences in the ensembles in terms of depth and
speed. Clustered ensembles seem to favor a possibly more shallow
trough promoting a quicker eastward speed through the forecast
region. A faster trough passing would lean towards lower
rainfall totals across the region. Either way, rain chances look
to rise Thursday night as a warm front advances through the
region. WAA spurs high temperatures on Friday 5-10 degrees above
average. The associated cold front looks to cross the region
Friday/Friday night triggering a northwest flow regime that
could keep POPs elevated through Saturday due to lake enhanced
showers. Despite cold FROPA, temperatures are expected to remain
near normal keeping any lake enhanced showers rain.

A drier trend could prevail later on Sunday as subtle height
rises are favored. This could be a brief dry spell as ensembles
seem to hint at upper troughing advancing towards the region by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will be maintained through much of the morning as upper
ridging continues to transition east over and across the
region. Latest model runs show precipitation not reaching ZZV by
early afternoon, and although there will definitely be some wet
bulbing / cooling in the lower levels at onset given the
current dry air, strong warm advection should mitigate
evaporational cooling early on and expect precipitation to
largely be rain at most ports today. The exception would be FKL
and DUJ where forecast upper air profiles indicate precipitation
would be likely snow at onset, potentially mixed with some
sleet, but freezing rain looks unlikely given the timing and
forecast surface temperatures.
this
The biggest impact to terminals looks to be cig/vis
restrictions, weighing heavily towards cig restrictions given
latest forecast MRi values. By this afternoon latest guidance
shows 30-40% chance of <1kft cigs in general across the region
and 80-100% chance by this evening. Likewise, MVFR cig
probabilities will increase this afternoon, with close to an
areawide 100% probability areawide by this evening.

Precipitation should wind down later in the evening as wind
veers to the north with the sewd advance of an inverted sfc
trough.

Outlook...

Periodic restrictions and precipitation are expected through
next weekend as the area remains within a relatively active
weather pattern.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...88