673
FXUS61 KPBZ 040742 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
342 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the area in a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and warmer through Friday
2) Shower/thunderstorm chances return over the weekend, with
severe storms possible Saturday
3) Dry and warm again early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure will remain centered across the Ohio
Valley region through Friday. Increasing 500 mb heights and 850
mb temperatures should result in warmer temperatures today and
Friday, with highs in the mid 80s for most locations outside of
the higher terrain areas. Dew points should remain in the upper
40s to lower 50s for most areas today, increasing into the mid
50s for Friday, keeping overall humidity levels comfortable.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front/trough is
expected to advance across the Upper Midwest Friday night,
approaching the Upper Ohio Valley region on Saturday. Some
uncertainty remains in the timing of the surface front, which
could also affect the severe weather potential. At this time, it
appears some initial shortwave ascent will bring increasing
cloud cover and shower chances Saturday morning. The main
shortwave trough axis is progged for a late Saturday/Saturday
night passage, where the highest POPs for showers/storms are
focused.

The latest ensemble guidance indicates CAPE should top
out from 500-1000 j/kg late Saturday afternoon ahead of the
shortwave, with diminishing levels by evening. 0-6km shear is
progged at 30-35kt during this same time. The amount of cloud
cover, and timing of the shortwave, will affect how much
instability is able to develop. The latest guidance has trended
toward a late afternoon/early evening passage, which would
result in maximized instability and a greater potential for
severe storms. The 06Z NBM has come in with higher indices for
severe storms as well, and the Storm Prediction Center has
included much of the area in a Slight Risk (or level 2 out of 5)
for severe storms Saturday afternoon and early evening.

The NBM probability of at least 0.5 inches of rain through the
weekend is between 40 and 60 percent, with probability of 1
inch 10-20 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model ensembles indicate the Upper Ohio Valley is expected to
be under a ridge following the weekend shortwave trough. This
should result in dry and warm weather to start next week. Most
guidance indicates high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Some
breakdown of the ridge is possible by midweek, when shower and
storm chances return.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR and a light west wind are expected through the TAF period
under high pressure. Just a few passing high clouds will stream
across the region at times.

Outlook...
VFR is expected through Friday under high pressure. Restriction
and shower/thunderstorm potential increases from NW-SE Saturday
into Saturday night with the approach of a cold front. Shower,
thunderstorm, and restriction potential continues into Sunday as
the front completes its passage. VFR returns Monday under high
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM